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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (3879)	12/16/1997 6:54:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Eugene, you asked Cary... >What would you place the odds at for a drop in amat to 18? < I don't have the answer, but I find it significant that you are not the first to ask that kind of question here. In the exuberant days of summer this question would have gotten you flamed. Based on gut feel I think we're at least 20% from the low. GM

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (3879)	12/16/1997 6:56:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Eugene, I have suggested buy levels of 25, 20, and 15 for AMAT. I usually don't get my last level, but the second is pretty likely. I would GUESS that the odds on $18 is 30-40%. I will buy more AMAT, EGLS, KLAC, LRCX, NVLS, SVGI, UTEK at levels lower than my current average prices. I expect to increase my dollar investment between 33% and 100% for each, depending on the extent of the price drop. I am thinking of adding one more from CMOS, ASYT, VECO, or SFAM if the prices fall enough. This will not be a "significantly larger amount." I don't think I should reward my poor performance this summer by going overboard. I am finishing up at SLAC and will start a new position at a private semi-equip at the end of the month. My "occupation"/title will change from scientific programmer to software engineer. Cary