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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (19134)	12/16/1997 10:47:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Enterprise growth and Novell product revenues Caught between a rock and a hard place. As you mention if the enterprise growth rate is lower than the small server growth rate and Novell has no real products in the small server end of the market, then, SChmidts rumored look for new products would fit the logic of the situation, as would the profit scenarios you have outlined. What Novell has right now in the low end are two products --- NDS on NT (sells to NT shops that have other Novell servers) (not sure if its for sale yet)and Bordermanager cache (sells to NT web server shops. They also have indirectly NOVONYX (web server)(almost ready for sale). Until the IntranetWare 5.0 JAVA systems come out we will not know what they plan to sell in the low end. ================================== TO give you some idea what Novell is up against. The NY Times said that the Email stations at Internet World were heavily in demand. They also incorrectly attributed the existence of those stations to IBM rather than Novell.

To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (19134)	12/16/1997 11:12:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley	Respond to of 42771

<<Although Jack said he thinks that the enterprise is growing faster than 10%-15%, I remember that IDC said last year that growth is around 13% and Novell 'old' management based their projections on this growth rate.>> Hi Salah, I didn't say I "think the enterprise is growing faster than 10 - 15%", I said I think it will begin to grow faster than that starting late (calendar) Q298 and Q398 and beyond. It may be growing SLOWER than 15% right now as companies wait to see Moab before making platform/buying decisions. jww

To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (19134)	12/17/1997 9:42:00 AM
From: Dieter Koerner	Respond to of 42771

Dear Salah, <BTW, I'm very pleased that you and Paul made peace, I enjoy and appreciate both your posts. I have to second this motion, looks like both are men of good nature. I wish you all a Happy Holiday Season. Regards, Dieter

To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (19134)	12/18/1997 11:06:00 PM
From: Scott C. Lemon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hello Salah, > Hi Scott...About SB I appreciate your response ... > I'm the last guy to have an intelligent answer to this highly > technical question. I'll try to ask a slightly different way ... > Frankly, I don't know what caching is, my technical knowledge is > very limited, and there are several people in the thread who are > much more knowledgeable than me who can respond to this question > (Paul, BP, Jack, Fred, Joe, Dave, and several others). Caching is the new market that Novell is leading in that will springboard us into the forefront again! ;-) > However, my main point about SB is that it is the fastest growing > segment of the market. I'm guessing that this segment is growing at > 40% to 60% yearly, while the enterprise segment is growing at 10% > to 15% yearly. So this reinforces the arguement that there is a tremendous amount of money to be made in the SB market. > In any case, with NW sales declining from ~300M in Q3-95, to ~250M > in Q4-96, to 150M-170M presently, because MSFT is taking over the > low end, something needs to be done at the low end to get Novell > back on track. I guess that my question was directed at the issue of trying to compete head-to-head with Microsoft to sell into this segment, vs. selling complimentary products to these customers ... products that compliment and enhance their Windows purchases. > I do believe this is the main concern in the thread, without strong > products for the low end, the chances for a turnaround are very > slim. I think that people often focus on us selling Novell products into these customers instead of Microsoft products. Recently numerous customers have asked us to drop the "us vs. them" attitude and to focus on fixing the things that Microsoft just can't seem to do right. We, as Novell, have never sold networking products into "pure Novell" accounts. There is no such thing. The customer always had to have desktop operating systems from Apple, IBM, Microsoft, or others. I believe that even recently Eric Schmidt has reinforced the new attitude of selling products that make Microsoft networks work. And the customer feedback has been very good. I believe that to penetrate the SB market we do not have to sell the entire sale. We need to be a key part of the sale. We want to be one of the components. We want to "love them to death" ... > Don't forget that MSFT is not sitting idly waiting for Novell to > regain their market share, MSFT is forging ahead to dominate this > market totally, here is what MSFT is doing: I agree completely ... they are an amazing machine! > ******************************* > BTW, I'm very pleased that you and Paul made peace, I enjoy and > appreciate both your posts. I too like this list to be a productive source of information and also appreciate both your posts! > Regards > > Salah Scott C. Lemon