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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (3979)	12/16/1997 10:36:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4571

Please. Stop the "short" hype. It's getting real old. See the following : "Subject: Federal problem worse than we were told Date: Sat, Dec 13, 1997 1:40 PM From: SMKCPA Message-id: <19971213134000.IAA18149@ladder01.news.aol.com> ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook December 12, 1997 Volume 2, No. 46 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Agency Delays Could Stretch Conversion Schedules Over half of federal agencies are apparently sounding Y2K distress signals, according to information released this week by Rep. Stephen Horn (R-CA), chairman of the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology. Horn's assessment shows 14 departments on the trailing edge of century date repairs, with Labor and Energy apparently not applying much labor or energy to the effort at all. Based on their reported progress in the quarter, Horn projects these particular agencies to conclude Y2K conversions in 2019. Other wayward agencies on the path to completion are the Department of Defense (2012), the Department of Transportation and Office of Personnel Management (2010), the Department of Agriculture (2005), the Department of Treasury (2004), the General Services Administration (2002), the Department of Justice and the Department of Health and Human Resources (2001). Worse still, Horn's estimates only account for mission critical systems being repaired. Mission critical systems being replaced, second-tier systems and embedded systems are not included in the tabulation. In a prepared statement, Horn said, "Another year has passed and the latest data show that the current work on year 2000 in Federal computers is unacceptable and potentially disastrous." In a separate letter this week to Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Franklin Raines, Horn wrote, "We have accepted misleading reports, sloppy and incoherent data, and overly optimistic schedules. Now, with the Chief Information Officers in place, OMB needs to require agency plans and reports that are more comprehensive and reliable." A Hill source termed the latest results "grim," adding, "There's an overwhelming need for senior agency management, Cabinet Secretaries and agency heads to have their feet held to the fire. For the weak [decentralized] agencies, this is a business continuation issue. That's the concern. CIOs just don't have the clout. Some agencies just aren't catching up." Could Horn's methodology be masking substantial progress? Estimates were calculated by first finding the percentage increase in systems which have completed either testing or implementation phases between August 15 and November 15. Assuming that this rate never changes, the next step determines the number of quarters at this rate needed to reach 100 percent completion. By this calculation, agencies could be making significant strides short of completion in renovation or testing and still perform poorly in the forecast. Not so, says the Hill source. "This is not a prediction, just a projection based on the past quarter1s reported progress. Is the methodology fair? Take the Department of Energy for example. It1s not like a python with the mouse going through. If Energy had jumped from 50 to 90 percent renovation and done no testing, we1d say things are moving. But let1s face it, they are only at 13 percent renovation and have just 8 quarters left." Clearly, much about the Y2K preparedness of federal agencies remains unknown. Horn wants to change that by changing the reporting rules. As he points out in his letter to Raines, only 12 mission critical systems at the State Department are undergoing repairs; 30 mission critical systems are being replaced. No information is provided in the current reporting approach about the status of these systems. Horn also wants more consistent definitions. DoD has reclassified 819 systems out of the mission critical category since May, Horn claims, moving them out of view but not fixing them. That still leaves DoD gunning for two digit dates in 3,143 mission critical systems. But what about the Defense Department's army of 21,911 tier two and three systems? Horns wants those as well as embedded chip conversion projects included in the quarterly reporting. And some of the federal agency reporting just doesn't compute, Horn claims. In his letter to Raines, Horn indicated that the Commerce Department supplied system assessment numbers which don't seem to add up; the Environment Protection Agency failed to supply scheduled end dates in either its August or November reports; the Department of Transportation's reporting omits Federal Aviation Administration mission critical system assessment numbers; and the Department of Health and Human Services claims assessment completion while acknowledging that some of this work is on-going in external Medicare systems and in division telecommunications systems." Got it, now?