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To: kckip who wrote (19323)12/2/2014 12:41:23 AM
From: pedro_deleon  Respond to of 41419
 
Yeah, I really DON'T have a firm view on what this move is about yet. (Small iv, with v up lurking out there? or larger downside underway?)
But it bothers me when others suggest they have a firm hold on the pattern ... then won't spell it out in plain English ... AND, most importantly, don't seem to leave the door open to other possibilities. Ie, projecting a sense of authority that in my opinion is misplaced based on the evidence at hand.

On the question of impulsive or corrective structure, even in my most bearish state of mind at this point, my system is not allowing me to contemplate a FINAL top. So the most that I might expect is the bookend IV on the bullish count up from 09.* So at the highest RELEVANT degree, whatever we do here will be at best corrective. Now that would be a large move and very tradeable. But my point all along is that five wave moves are NOT reliable indications of a trend change (ie, impulsive at large degree). End of rant.

* This is not to rule out the bearish ABC count off the 09 lows.
But to fulfill this count, we'd need either a parabolic blowoff, or an ED starting from 1820 that gradually works my LT indicators down toward the major turn line even as price climbs.