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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (3896)12/16/1997 11:49:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
Jay,

An interesting thesis.

Do you believe that the sector is heading to a cyclical low rather than a pause on the upleg that started June 96?

The conditions that you described came to pass during the first 2-3 quarters of 96. Since 4Q96, fabs have been introducing new technology - CMP, DUV, other 0.25u / 0.18u equipment. While I wouldn't argue with a 3-6 month lag in prices, I'm not sure that we'll actually see cyclical lows of 1*Sales for AMAT or other companies that are well positioned for the new technology, for example.

Ian.



To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (3896)12/17/1997 1:27:00 PM
From: Investor2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
RE: "This cycle will truly cleanse the industry of the 30% equipment spending as a percent of semi revenue since 1995! "

How will the down cycle change the capital spending-to-total cost ratio of semi manufacturing?

Thanks,

I2


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