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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (2400)	12/12/2014 2:39:21 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26834

Kirk... about Bonds - We have a bond bubble that could be about to come undone. - Personally, I don't like the word "bond bubble" ... I do not believe this term is an accurate mental image of what's been taking place in the bond markets over the last 8 years and soon will move into it's 9th year... (gezzz... its been that long) These years have not been a natural process of FED adjusting for inflation and normal money supply. We are still in a deflationary environment and yields could stay within the low/high of the last band for 2015 and beyond into 2016 Lows 2012 30yr = 2'452 10yr = 1'394 Highs 2013 30yr = 3'976 10yr = 3'036 I feel the bond markets have flat-lined and will stay this way of months going forward I was long bonds and sold them Oct 15, 2014 and am now flat with no entered positions. I may trade in and out for short-term swings soon... with this recent move The effect of oil at $50-60 will have a positive effect on the USA economy and not a negative effect. Due to the improved technical abilities of fracking to extract the crude... read Continentals CEO... costs are being lowered... supply should remain steady not blow-up. He's also reduced most of his hedging naturalgasintel.com This may effect highly leveraged companies and some Dakota jobs, and increase industry consolidation, but not enough to hurt the economy for an extended number of years. Its a boon to the economy... except for the talking heads looking for a story and a fear gauge to set their hats on... Also... and this makes me a bit of an eccentric... I don't believe gold has anything to do with bonds... PERIOD Will take that up in another post. Chip