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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (12310)	12/17/1997 8:05:00 AM
From: Bill Coenen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Glenn, Craig, et al. The issue isn't recession or cooling economies in Asia; it is: how does that effect sales and production of COMS products there? The answer to that question is problematical at best. Some self determined Asian government remedies may even be benificial to some COMS products, where other remidies will impact quite poorly on them. Certainly the ease at which banks will provide loans to spur developement is an example of the latter. My GUESS is that the turndown and its effects on US exports and holdings there will look somewhat overblown a year from now. Then Asia's ineveditable cool down, after its economic boilers were running too hot for too long, will have a clearer perspective. Perhaps the coming year will be ripe for some good investments in the next round of Asian growth. Good luck to us all, Bill

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (12310)	12/18/1997 2:15:00 AM
From: DX	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

Glenn, I respectively disagree with your "research" as below. >>I believe a bit more research is necessary here. Japan officially announced they are in a recession last week. That was as far as they would go although one could argue it is a depression. They have been in a recession for at least three years. Japan also has the largest GDP in Asia so they count. << Japan's economy has been in and out of recession and depression for almost seven years. It is safe to say that today is not much worse than any other day in last seven years. >>China is also in a recession but it is more difficult to quantify since they still operate as a Communist State.<< It is simply not true. China is enjoying its best days in decades. Its economy is growing at 9.5% this year, more than 10% in last five years, and 8~10% in forseeable coming years. Besides, its inflation is well below 3%. How can you say that it is in a recession?! Some facts may help you understand more about its high-tech related economy: computer sales have been growing at more than 100% in last three years, which is the second largest market only slightly behind Japan in asia; telecommunication markets have been growing at 50~80% in last five years, which has second largest phone systems, including more than 10M cellular phones and the most advanced digital phone systems in this world, only behind the States on this planet; its whole high-tech sector has been growing at 30~50% in last three years; its non-state-owned economy contributes more than 60% of its GNP, it is fair to say that China is actually more captalist than communist. >>Hong Kong has an inflation rate of more than 18% with prime interest rates of 16%.<< It is false. HongKong's inflation rate is about 6%. I don't think its prime interest rate is 16%. You must confuse prime interest rate with its "over-night" interest rate(something like our FED interest rate) has been up and down dramatically to fight H.K dollar depreciation pressure from recent asia flu. >>I cannot comment on TaiWan or Singapore because I do not have enough data at present.<< So far, they have been doing extremely well. Asia has some problems today. But it is not as worse as some analysts claim(How many times have they been right after all?). Regards,