Larry and all:
That post I wrote on the CSCO thread that Daniel Gold linked here, was addressed to Gary (CSCO Gary), and to the rest of the CSCO thread. I'm posting below his rebuttal, and then my reply. I believe it will become very apparent just why he believes ASND is in such dire straits -- his info is outdated and/or uncited.
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To: Style Pts (10986 )
From: Gary
Tuesday, Dec 16 1997 10:03PM EST
Reply # of 11052
Style,
You win... You're a much better than I and you know so much more about the networking market than anyone on this thread - particularly those that have been living and breathing this business for years. Please oh please Style Pts. tell us what we should invest in next...
BTW: Your response was pathetic and did nothing to support your case as to why you are bad mouthing the stock when it's down. In fact, you go on to say that it's a strong stock - one that you wouldn't short in the low 70's. Easy to say after the close. I see you didn't take me up on the dare to short. Be that as it may.. I can see that you are a weak individual that apparently talks a big game. My guess is that's about it since anyone investing (or trading) in the sums you say you are would certainly not talk about it publicly. What high school do you go to?
Now,... enough of shots... You say you want to invest in ASND/CSCC because you think that they'll succeed in the ATM/FR market... and better Cisco. And COMS... with what? .Good Luck ;) Let's see.. I guess this warrants a bit of analysis. Since I can't give it to you all at once we'll do it in bits. If this isn't enough just bring it on. Read on.
In 1996, according to Vertical Systems Cisco had 16.1% share in the ATM market while Cascade was an "OTHER". In 1997 Vertical reported Cisco with a 19.4% market share with Ascend at 3.9%..that was behind NN (15.9%) NT (13.5), Fore - hah (11.9%), and Bay (4.6%) - now they're even behind BAY! Seems to me Ascend has a long road to hoe before it makes any headway here. Notwithstanding they were thrown out of AT&T because the product doesn't work.
In the Frame Relay Market (as you call it) Cisco was reported to be behind Cascade (20% to 20.8% respectively) in 1996. In 1997 Cisco is #1 with 17% share versus only 13.1% to Ascend! That's a big drop for Ascend and represents only a $17M increase in revenues in a market that nearly doubled. True Cisco gave up some market share as well but still managed a 30% year over year gain in revenue. I should point out that the lost share is due mainly to a plethora of small vendors entering. This will eventually ring itself out. In frame rely carrier switches Ascend showed well but I'd suggest we sit back and watch that space - remember AT&T... In ISP switches ASND/CSCC went from a whopping 56% share down to 29.1%!!!! YIKE! This while Cisco went from a poor 10.4% showing in 1996 to a 22.6% share in 1997. And finally, in the Enterprise Switch market ASND/CSCC went from a 12.4% showing down to an "OTHER"! I have to admit - it's now clear to me why ASND is DECENDING. I have to thank you for giving me the initiative to go look at my research.
Oh... 3COM - they're an OTHER in every category I could find. So, Style, My Good Friend... unless you have some insider knowledge that indicates ASND and COMS are gaining market share instead of losing it, as all my research seems to indicate, then I think you're barking up the wrong tree.
Oh...one more thing.. If you want to take shots at ones technical knowledge you should first understand whom you're shooting at. It's true that I may not be a guru as far as market techncials, but one thing I do understand is the networking sector's fundamentals and the products which make up this sector.
Gary
Message 2984000
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To: Gary (11008 )
From: Style Pts
Wednesday, Dec 17 1997 9:54PM EST
Reply # of 11052
I am well pleased you did not disappoint me with a no-show after that long post I wrote. Funny how you hesitated in the beginning, and then had a change of heart. You must have eaten your spinach that evening! ;o)
I found a grievous error in your post, and will very much enjoy taking full advantage of it, as for the rest -- there are claims that require clarification, such as your source. A quote and link would suit just fine, thank you. I'll get to that later...first things first!
>>>Your response was pathetic and did nothing to support your case as to why you are bad mouthing the stock when it's down.<<<
I do say! No support, you claim? Ha! I guess Data Comm and Infonetics just don't have a clue. Now THAT is a strong rebuttal, indeed! LOL!
>>>Easy to say after the close. I see you didn't take me up on the dare to short.<<<
Do you truly expect me to designate 10's of 1000's of $ in an instant, when you snap your fingers? How presumptuous you are! You will notice that today I made good on my promise, I announced my short in detail. Remember, I did say I was with you longs for the moment -- I wanted CSCO to see 85+ before I shorted. I was patient, and thus my decision to wait until I had a better feel for the stock, was prudent.
>>>My guess is that's about it since anyone investing (or trading) in the sums you say you are would certainly not talk about it publicly.<<<
Oh, come now. Remember where we are...as far as I know, my SS#, address, etc., are not public information. So where is the threat in my peers having knowledge of my investments? Besides, what is so big about the "sums" I'm investing -- I would think that most of us here are well enough off to have the luxury to invest, period. Hey, haven't you heard of margin?
>>>In 1996, according to Vertical Systems Cisco had 16.1% share in the ATM market while Cascade was an "OTHER". In 1997 Vertical reported Cisco with a 19.4% market share with Ascend at 3.9%..that was behind NN (15.9%) NT (13.5), Fore - hah (11.9%), and Bay (4.6%) - now they're even behind BAY! Seems to me Ascend has a long road to hoe before it makes any headway here. Notwithstanding they were thrown out of AT&T because the product doesn't work.<<<
Now I understand why you so misunderstand the dynamics of the current networking market: your sources are obsolete! Your report from Vertical Systems belongs in a nursing home. ;o) What is useful though is that you unknowingly provided me the very info I needed to emphasize one of my points. You are now allowing me to present ASND's progress in ATM over the course of 1 year.
This excerpt is from the 11/12 Infonetics report:
--> Infonetics Research, Inc., has released a study confirming that Ascend is the worldwide market leader for ISDN and Frame Relay among both regional and large (national and international) network
service providers.
According to Infonetics, Ascend dominates the worldwide Internet ISDN market with a 69 percent marketshare, and the nearest competitor is a distant 12 percent. Ascend also leads in Frame Relay with 42 percent of the worldwide market; the next closest competitor had only 18 percent marketshare. In addition the report shows Ascend has achieved 23 percent marketshare of the worldwide Internet ATM market. <-- Message 2706763
Let's summarize.
ASND #1 FR with 42% (nearest rival: 18% -- gee, could it be CSCO?)
ASND #1 ISDN with 69% (nearest rival: 12%)
ASND achieves 23% worldwide ATM market.
Wait a sec! According to your own 1996 data from the Vertical report, and my 1997 data from Infornetics, ASND grew ATM market share from 3.9% to 23% in just one year...that's 590% growth. Wow!
You also mentioned AT&T "threw out" ASND(CSCC) because their product didn't work...that's odd, never heard of that before. I'll get back to you on that one.
After you brought up ATM marketshare, you then proceeded to bring up FR. But as you can see from the data above, ASND is #1 in FR with the nearest rival (CSCO?) far behind.
Also, you failed to provide the source of your information -- even if it was outdated or otherwise inaccurate. I know! It was another one of those fully-funded subsidiary labs that CSCO ordered to come up with those fictional numbers, right?
>>>3COM - they're an OTHER in every category I could find.<<<
I only brought up COMS in relation to its RAS technology and market position, in which case I already supplied the Data Comm report that proves the hyper TCH's superiority over the AS5300.
>>>It's true that I may not be a guru as far as market techncials, but one thing I do understand is the networking sector's fundamentals and the products which make up this sector.<<<
In closing, my entire post proves your final statement to be bogus as well! ;o)
Style Pts.
Message 2993625 |
