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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3944)	12/18/1997 5:24:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Brian, I believe AMAT gave guidance of $2.10-2.15 for 98. I suspect Morgan & Co were repeating it and SoundView massaged it to reflect a fall off in Korean (and other SEA??) sales. I don't think there is panic in the market, but I don't believe anyone has confidence in the 98 EPS estimates. 98 has the potential to be much scarier than 96 was. 96 was an supply/demand imbalance problem against a backdrop of healthy, growing world economies. 98 seems to have the same problem for the semis and semi-equips, but there is a threat of a deflationary slowdown or recession (previously known as a depression) in world economies triggered by the deflationary meltdown in SEA. Considering your statements about your margin position, I think you might be wearing "AMAT colored glasses." I think AMAT is a GREAT company with an exceptional future, but they only sell equipment to their customers; they don't finance them and they don't run their businesses. Cary