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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (26902)	12/18/1997 7:04:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573902

Kash: Brian's formula 140/380$70 was based on a $70 (incremental) cost of production from Business Week, but anyhow, Brian's estimate ($25) and yours ($20) are pretty close. I've seen $2000 cost per wafer used by Intel addicts. Even using $2500 cost per wafer to account for extra processing steps in AMD process + $10 packaging cost you get 10 + (2500/(0.50 yield 380) = $23. I doubt very much Intel can get > 70% yield from their 0.25 process in '98. Once AMD gets to two-thirds Intel's yield, they will be the low cost producer and further price cuts wouldn't make any sense. Petz

To: kash johal who wrote (26902)	12/18/1997 7:07:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573902

Kash, I think the cost per 0.25/200mm wafer is more in the $2500 range. Of course this varies greatly as a function of volume. Maybe, somebody has a better estimate out there? Bob

To: kash johal who wrote (26902)	12/18/1997 7:36:00 PM
From: Brian Hutcheson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573902

Kash , re. math it was a simple approach to get the big picture . If estimated cost of K6 on .35 was $70 (according to analysts) , then ignoring fixed costs which become less of a factor with volume production . The wafer costs are the same for .25 then the costs are proportional to the different yield between the 2 processes . That is why I used 140/380 . BTW the total cost of 140 wafers at $70 is $9800 , divide that by 380 and you arrive at $25.78 which of course is the theoretical maximum yield . Of course someone (read Intel police) will pick holes in that calculation , but it does give an idea of sorts .

To: kash johal who wrote (26902)	12/18/1997 11:33:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573902

Kash - Re: "The manufacturing cost of an 8 inch wafer in 0.25 micron is about $800-1000." I think $2000 to $2500 would be closer to the real cost of a processing an 8 inch wafer on a 0.25 micron process. Paul

To: kash johal who wrote (26902)	12/19/1997 11:59:00 AM
From: greg nus	Respond to of 1573902

Kash, I think your right. To project out furtherLow processor prices of around $50.00 is also consisent with maoving the fully functional sub $1,000.00 market down to $500.00 as I have perdicted in a post to Paul Engle. That is one of the necessary requirements for the rest of the country (60% of the population) unwired to act to get wired. Also the beauty of the $500.00 system senerio occuring takes all the manufacturing production overcapacity out of the system even Dram.