Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3969)	12/18/1997 7:57:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Justa, RE: "Are you saying there is a recessionary threat in the USA from SEA situation? If so, how so? What probabilty do you assign such a scenario?" Yes. There has been much discussion by economists and market analysts about the possibility that overcapacity exists around the world and that this has held prices down in the face of falling unemployment. The SEA situation will decrease the market for US goods and will force US industries to compete with products dumped by the SEAs at prices which reflect their devalued currencies and dire need for hard currency (dollars). There is no doubt that next years GDP will suffer. Current estimates are a 0.5% reduction in growth rate, but no recession. I have little confidence in the current estimates. The negative impact of SEA is correct, but the magnitude is probably guesswork. A recession, 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, I believe, is made more likely by the high level of personal debt which has been exacerbated by financial institutions "pushing" credit cards. I would assign 50% to a US recession in 98-99. Cary

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3969)	12/18/1997 8:54:00 PM
From: ET	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

jw...........all this SEA crap is just that,CRAP......everyone is posting this and that about asia. like as if they know what their talking about.most of the posts where some idiot mentions asia this or asia that probably couldn't name five countries over there......things in the chip and drive business's are always changing and you will get some lull's ,it doesn't mean that when companies mention things are slowing down that it's a precursor to bankruptcy...wake up people, don't get faked out of your stocks or funds because wall street is greedy and looking for more business.....technology and growth will continue to march on......where the insiders selling???? no...why did you??? because the bloody press keeps scaring you about asia,wait until their is some other story,asia won't be on the front page,it will be on page 13....... you better be long because the smart folk knows where the growth is....it's not in KO [11%]...it's in the tech......cisco's chairman said about 2 months ago his sales could double or triple by the year 2000.....listen to him not these punky 30 year old MM's who panic or the reporters who are just that[reporters]......read the news carefully the last week and you will see some very favorable reports.....