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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3970)	12/18/1997 9:15:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Cary, Respectfully, I must disagree with a 50% probability of a US recession in 98 - 99, especially if you believe SEA effects will be the cause. 1. Most of the US GDP is internal. 2. Most of the external component of GDP is not from SEA consumers. 3. US economy is closer to overheating than recession. When was the last time any economist or pundit pretending to be an economist complained about unemployment rates being too high? 4. Effect of SEA raw materials (labour or goods) on US products will be to lower costs. With steady prices/volumes, margins, profits and productivity will increase from that cause alone. 5. Productivity from innovative use of technology continues to exceed both trend and expectations. I fully agree that the world growth will be less than it could have been without the banking crisis in SEA; I doubt that there'll be a recession. I do believe that growth will continue at a more sustainable pace. FWIW, Ian neither an economist nor a pundit, but I do have an opinion.