Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3972)	12/19/1997 1:18:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, RE: "Respectfully, I must disagree with a 50% probability of a US recession in 98 - 99, especially if you believe SEA effects will be the cause." I assume from your list that you think 50% is too high. RE: "I fully agree that the world growth will be less than it could have been without the banking crisis in SEA; I doubt that there'll be a recession. I do believe that growth will continue at a more sustainable pace." You seem to be agreeing that there will be an economic slowdown. I am surprised that you have difficulty with a 50% recession possibility considering the length of the business expansion and the severity of the SEA problems. Cary

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3972)	12/20/1997 4:08:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Although I agree with your point about recession in the U.S. I do believe that when it happends it could be worse than many preceeding it because of that lack of expectation. ie. There are more small employers feeding off the current liquidity bubble than ever before. More people employed by these type or companies than ever before, socking their savings into stocks than ever before, and borrowing more than ever before to do it all. A couple of other observations about your points: <1. Most of the US GDP is internal.> Has this stopped recessions in the past? <5. Productivity from innovative use of technology continues to exceed both trend and expectations.> Hasnt this always been the case? DAK