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Technology Stocks : Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (2636)	12/18/1997 10:13:00 PM
From: MrBluff	Respond to of 3276

I mean I think their exposure is mostly Europe not Asia. I don't think I am too worried about DEC's exposure to Asia. I am however concerned about holding 36 on the chart.

To: stock bull who wrote (2636)	12/19/1997 12:33:00 AM
From: John Sladek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3276

re: Europe vs Asia I am trying to get a handle on this, since there seems to be some uncertainty on this thread over the relative impacts of Asia vs Europe. The last breakdown I could find is in the 1996 annual report - they don't seem to give a sales breakdown by region in the quarterly reports. Anyways the numbers for 1996 are shown below. The first number is the sales, and the second number in parenthese is the profit. All numbers are in millions. Net Revenues USA Unafilliated consumer sales: 4,397 (0.140) Inter Area Transfers: 1,467 Total 5,864 Europe Unafilliated consumer sales: 5,485 (142.2) Inter Area Transfers 315 Total: 5,800 Canada, Latin America, Asia-Pacific Unafilliated Customer Sales 3,165 (35.6) Inter Area Transfers 1,224 Total: 4,390 Eliminations -3,007 Net Revenue 13,046 (Operating Income: 130.3) Now I would assume that Asia-Pacific would account for no more than 2.5 billion in sales in total, since Canada, Asutralia and all of South America must account for at least $600 M in sales, and possibly more (just a guess). Europe on the other hand accounts for $5.5B in customer sales, which is about 2x my estimate of Asia-Pacific Sales. In terms of profit, Europe delivered 4x the profit of the rest of DEC put together - 80% of operating profit. So I would say that, unless things have changed drastically in 1997, Europe is a lot more important than Asia is. ---- Regarding currency: DEC has a natural currency hedge since it buys things from Asia; from its Asian subsidiaries, and from third parties. All sorts of components will be coming from Asia: video monitors, memory chips, disk drives, CD ROMs etc, etc. These will be bought from Asian companies and paid for in Asian currencies. If DEC had no use for Asian currencies, things would be worse. Also, due to weaker currencies, imports should be cheaper. In 1996, it was the USA where DEC had the most problems. The sale of the money losing Hudson facility will help fix things up a bit. The decreased headcount (2,000 employees is about $200,000,000 salaries+benifits+overheads) this should also help improve profits. Regards, John Sladek

To: stock bull who wrote (2636)	12/19/1997 1:22:00 AM
From: John Sladek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3276

Has anyone on this thread used a DEC Alpha machine? If so, what do you think of them? Here's my experience: The delivery guys dropped off our new Alpha server today. It took me about 5 minutes to hook it all up, and about another 10 minutes to do the final configuration of Windows NT (i.e., set up video driver, network address etc). This is the first time I ever set one up, and I only had to look at the installation manual once to figure out what video driver to use. It is also blindingly fast. It makes our Pentium machines look very sick indeed. Mind you, it is a bit of an unfair comparison since it has a 500MHz 21164 CPU, 384 Mb RAM, and a total of 31 Gb of disk space. Officially, this machine will be used to develop a new replacement for a legacy VAX/VMS application - assuming the project gets funded of course. In the mean time, I am going to "experiment" with it as much as possible. So far, the "Alpha experience" has been very positive! Regarding DEC's share price: Surely it must be bottoming out. Maybe we are seeing the effects of tax loss selling. Also options expiry. Also Asian Flu. Combined with general market volatility, and general downtrend of tech stocks. Ouch. Surely the cash will have to start supporting the price at some point. I'm in it for the long haul and will buy more if it continues to weaken. Of course, my general plan is to take money out of the market at these levels, so I don't know how much buying I will be doing. One thing's for sure, if it hits $25, I will sell the farm and load up. Regarding Palmer: I am starting to warm up to him a little bit. I think that the Intel deal is an ok deal. Maybe he could have got a better deal, maybe not. The way I look at it is that before the lawsuit, Intel was allegedly using DEC's patented technology without paying for it. After the lawsuit, they are paying DEC in excess of $1.5 billion in various considerations, and have taken a money-losing plant off DEC's hands. This has reduced DEC's headcount and removed red ink from the income statement. I get the sense that the semiconductor business was Palmer's baby, and selling this plant must have been a bitter pill for him to swallow - but he did the deal. That being said, I think that the board should do a lot more to light a fire under Palmer. They have billions in cash piled up - what are they going to use it for? Does Palmer have any good ideas? Does the board have any good ideas? I really think that DEC needs to get some new blood with good and fresh ideas on their board. Based on the age of their typical director (i.e., > 70 years of age), they are going to have a lot of retirements from the board soon anyways. I can't imagine that these guys are going to want to be going board meetings when they're in their eighties. Surely they want to retire and take it easy. Maybe the problem is that they're already taking it easy. Regards, John Sladek