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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (3983)	12/19/1997 11:42:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 10921

"I was planning at buying at the 1996 lows, do you think this is reasonable, or do you think we will actually undercut these lows?" Sorry for breaking in. Although we could see 1996 lows, try to keep in mind, even with the sky falling, that losses were expected to occur in 1997 when the stocks bottomed in early fall 1996. Furthermore, the largest semi-equips have had record quarters in the meanwhile.Finally, near the bottom, mergers were announced which led to a significant rebound in prices. The point is that buying prior to those 1996 lows would be prudent. You can always average down. I very much agree that the world economy is much scarier in 1998 than 1996. One obvious positive is that the dram oversupply will be resolved much quicker if the equipment spending falls drastically NOW.The rebound will be enormous off this next bottom. Similar to the 1996 rebound and this collapse the past 2 months, no one should be surprised by a rapid, sustained positive turn. Gene

To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (3983)	12/20/1997 9:12:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

THC, You have a good shopping list! I do think we will revisit the 96 lows. This is because the 96 cycle did not flush the speculation out of the DRAM market. I do believe that we may have a fast cycle 9 to 12 months and that the equips will discount this within the next 4 months. The market is getting extremely efficient at discounting cycle dynamics. Memory pricing ticking up 50% will be your time to mortgage the house and buy cheap equips. Remember, the fundamentals of the equips will be in the darkest hour and you will not want to do it. Bearish stories will be on every front page of every paper and no analyst or brokers will be telling you to buy. I personally will overweight AMAT and KLAC. Fewer things in life are more difficult to do. You must disentangle yourself from your emotions and sort through the BS to the significant facts. Remember, you sell equips when orders are accelerating and buy when orders and earnings are decelerating! This is probably the opposite of the CFA program which stresses risk management and capital preservation not much wealth creation. I'm not picking on CFAs because I have many CFA friends and they work very hard and are very smart. I'm just putting my spin on what creates significant buying and selling opportunities. Jay