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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Byers who wrote (6624)	12/19/1997 4:43:00 AM
From: blue_lotus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Hi Frank, >Over the course of '98 QCOM's market share can go nowhere except down with more manufactureres coming on line. It sure looks like in the short run QCOM can go a little lower. But this is probably a good buying oppertunity. In my opinion, QCOM should do very well in 98 and even 99. The following are good events for 98/99: 1) The supply and demand for CDMA phones in America can take more phone producers, and it will be to QCOMS benefit (from royalties.) 2) As far as I know, nobody else has come out with a good ASIC design for CDMA phones. I know that intel and VLSI have lincensed QCOMs ASIC designs (for royalities of ??); and that Nokia and MOT have been trying very hard to come up with their own ASICs, but in vain so far. a) The fact that a company like intel has taken the QCOM ASIC design implies that it must really be good. b) The fact that many telecom compines are actually putting funds into designing their own CDMA ASICs must imply that they perceive major saving from this (when compared to just getting QCOMS design), which spells a good market for these ASICS. 3) QCOM is the largest CDMA ASIC producer in the world today and I am sure they are going to stay ahead of their competition by leveraging on their knowledge base (this is what has restricted MOT in coming up with their CDMA solutions). 4) Asia might be bad, due to lose in royalties. But the ASICs will still sell for the same amount in Asia. If SAMSUNG starts selling cheap phones, it will not take phone market share from QCOM but address some of that demand that has not been addressed yet, and at the same time contribute even more to QCOM's ASIC Sales. 5) The Vadafone test results will come out soon. 6) The Profits from GlobalStar Gateway Sales shall start coming in the late 98 and phone sales in early 99. 7) The brightest star might actually be the first time profits from its various WLL contracts, and thus, new contracts there after. 8) I am also hoping that by 98/99, QCOM will have an answer to the 3rd Generation standards. May be the vodafone tests will effect this. May be they already have something. Any body have any information? The 8 channel combination solution (IS-95c) for midium data rate, that engineer mentioned, is very encouraging. When do these solutions get deployed? This is the highest data rate transmission that I have heard of from any GSM/CDMA standard. 9) And not to forget the effects of the great brand recognition and publicity due to the Super Bowl. 10) I wonder what Eudora brings in...both for revenues and the bottom line. It seems to be doing so well, but is it growing and profiting. Any body know? So I am actually looking forward to 98 with great hopes. It is just this Korea thing that needs to be ironed out and its effects accounted for before the uncertanity goes away. -Raj

To: Frank Byers who wrote (6624)	12/19/1997 4:46:00 AM
From: JGoren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Sure hope you're not right. Seems to me that the price is only temporarily depressed and for those with buying power a great opportunity for mid to longer term investors. Analysts still expecting '98 to come in around $2.25 even after the post-Asian flu reassessment. Even at 30 PE that would mean a stock price of around $67.50. At 40PE that would be $80 but I sure would not expect to see price near that level until the second half of calendar 1998. FB, you do have excellent point that market may discount Qcom mid term, waiting to see what handset competition does to Qcom in view of the double whammy from Asia. Unless rest of the world catches the flu, Qcom handset sales should not suffer much; ASIC's to Asia are Qcom problem. Company needs to redouble efforts at WLL infrastructure contracts. Vodaphone test results still not out. Ericy WCDMA press releases seem more like saber rattling before the standstill agreement expires in 13 days, Chuckj notwithstanding. For what it's worth, if I recall correctly, in the last three years Qcom has gone down quite a bit in December and bounced back significantly in January. I'm selling Dallas Cowboys short, not Qcom. Anybody want any Barry Switzer puts? I'm selling those. No takers? Well, never mind.