Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (3904)	12/19/1997 11:30:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Zebra 365, I agree with your estimates of how effective drugs are in ED therapy. The only thing I would add is that the needle may be closer to 80% effective ( and, more painful ). TA

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (3904)	12/19/1997 11:53:00 AM
From: Frostman	Respond to of 23519

Zebra, please read your e-mail. :-) Frostman

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (3904)	12/20/1997 12:16:00 AM
From: Bradpalm1	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 23519

Eventhough Vivus appears to be a screaming buy at these levels, I have the following concerns and comments about this stock. I AM NOT SHORT, but I'd like to be convinced that this recent renewal of enthusiasm is justified. I bring up these points for discussion purposes only and NOT to precipitate a conflagration between longs and shorts. Save your vitriol for the class-action suit. --- End of the year liabilities may reduce Vivus' cash hoard to about $70mm instead of the $100mm number being thrown around. Due to tax considerations, I also doubt that they'll be able to earn the $1.00+ now quoted by most analysts. --- It's STILL not so clear to me that management DIDN'T know about all these production issues beforehand and that additional negative announcements aren't just around the corner (I hope not but I have NO FAITH in management). --- Rumor has it that the acquisition of a private female incontinence company fell through about 6 weeks ago. This was a major blow to the credibility of this company on the street. --- A larger than expected amount of Muse may be shipped to overseas partners at a 60% discount to U.S. prices. What will this do to gross margins? --- On Oct. 8th, Vivus management stated that there wasn't an inventory buildup in the wholesale channel but on Dec. 11th they conceded that product WAS in the channel (first 15 days, then 30, now 45!). Measured against the $39mm in Q3, this would be close to $20 million worth of Muse sitting in the wholesale channel! Does this story wash? --- FWIW, rumor has it that Viagra's NDA has bypassed the FDA Advisory Committee which would shorten its anticipated launch date by 30-45 days. This would push up the potential release of Viagra to late March or April of next year. Further, PFE reps will be sampling the product to doctor's offices. --- Depending on how one looks at it, Viagra's early release could initially hurt Vivus but may be ultimately benefial to the company as the market for ED quickly expands and possible synergy between the two products is explored. Early release of Viagra, however, will doom Zonagen's hope of obtaining fast-track approval for Vasomax' NDA (which is actually a mute point since Zonagen is a fraud, IMO). Bradpalm1

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (3904)	12/20/1997 12:56:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 23519

Zebra: I believe your estimate of Viagra's effectiveness (30%) is understated. A summary of the Viagra Phase III studies (being reviewed by the FDA and published in brokers' reports) indicate an efficacy of 48% to 81% depending of the cause of ED. The spinal studies were particularly impressive (75% efficacy for Viagra versus 0% for placebo). Click here for my prior post on this subject. www3.techstocks.com Here's my basic theory why a systemic ED drug may be able to target the penis and not significantly effect other parts of the body: The chemical reactions and enzymes needed to create and reduce an erection are centered almost totally in the penis. If they weren't, the ears, nose, fingers, and toes of males would become erect when sexually stimulated. Not a pretty sight! If you found an oral agent that focused on the specific enzymes that impact erections and was safe, it would be a major advance in the treatment of erectile dysfunction. Only time and widespread usage will tell if Viagra is that agent. How will the availability of Viagra effect MUSE? ED is too complex for any one agent to be 100% effective or accepted totally by physicians. Best guess: although some initial usage will be lost to Viagra, there will a greatly expanding ED market for MUSE to develop. Accordingly, it is very probable that sales of MUSE will increase with the introduction of Viagra. BigKNY3