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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3933)	12/20/1997 2:34:00 AM
From: DR. BOND	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Dr. Bradpalm1, I could not resist responding to one of your posts, even though my "posting privlages" were recently revoked by my new "BRIDE" <ggg>. IMO your past posts on this thread were some of the WISEST, CONTROVERSIAL, and THOUGHT PROVATIVE on VVUS. So I will come out from the cold and attempt to take my shot! --- End of the year liabilities may reduce Vivus' cash hoard to about $70mm instead of the $100mm number being thrown around. Due to tax considerations, I also doubt that they'll be able to earn the $1.00+ now quoted by most analysts. 1. Brad, not being an accountant I'm not sure what you mean by "end of the year liabilites" , so since you didn't specify I will guess that you mean accrued tax liabilites and New Plant expenses. So yes I agree that 70 - 80 million is reasonable. The 100 million dollar number you are referring to was as of the end of Q3. Brad, most analysts are using a 18% tax rate instead of a normalized 36% rate before carryover losses (which are ending). Therefore after reducing production revenue by 25%, I see an obtainable range of estimates for FY 1997 ranging from $.86 (PW using a normalized 36% fully taxed model) to as high as $1.25 (other analysts using lower assumptions). --- It's STILL not so clear to me that management DIDN'T know about all these production issues beforehand and that additional negative announcements aren't just around the corner (I hope not but I have NO FAITH in management). 2. Good Point and we may never know. And I too have heard rumors that more bad news could follow if mgmt. doesn't fix some production issues fast! But first off these are just rumors, sometimes right and sometimes wrong. I personally believe that MGMT. mishandled this whole PRODUCTION AND INSPECTION/APPROVAL ISSUE and that is why Mr. Levitt was brought in. (I have some faith in management, but I do believe that the LACK PUBLIC CO. EXPERIENCE. -- Rumor has it that the acquisition of a private female incontinence company fell through about 6 weeks ago. This was a major blow to the credibility of this company on the street. 3. Yes, I too heard about this "RUMORED ACQUSITION" but once again it was just a rumor and if true without the TRUE FACTS as to why the deal fell through (if indeed it has) we can't make any assumptions. I disagree that it was a major blow to the credibility of this company because as far as I know none of the analysts covering VVUS factored a Q4 acquisition into their invesment thesis! So how could it be a MAJOR BLOW to credibility? --- A larger than expected amount of Muse may be shipped to overseas partners at a 60% discount to U.S. prices. What will this do to gross margins? 4. True, I have heard anywhere from 160,000 units of MUSE to 250,000 units of MUSE will be shipped to the UK for Astra's Jan. Launch and this will affect gross margins. I agree with your 60% discount rate! --- On Oct. 8th, Vivus management stated that there wasn't an inventory buildup in the wholesale channel but on Dec. 11th they conceded that product WAS in the channel (first 15 days, then 30, now 45!). Measured against the $39mm in Q3, this would be close to $20 million worth of Muse sitting in the wholesale channel! Does this story wash? 5. I can't remember if mgmt. said on OCT 8th that their was 0 inventory in the wholsale channel but I will find out. I do agree though that mgmt. conceded that inventory has risen at least from 30 to 45 days in the past quarter (more as a function of increased manufacuring conrols put in place during Q3 than weakening demand). But I am told (by a drug rep for MRK) that most major distributors like Cord, want at least 30 to 45 days worth of inventory in their channel! So this does not stike me as abnormal! Yes the story washes! --- FWIW, rumor has it that Viagra's NDA has bypassed the FDA Advisory Committee which would shorten its anticipated launch date by 30-45 days. This would push up the potential release of Viagra to late March or April of next year. Further, PFE reps will be sampling the product to doctor's offices. 6. This too I have heard. In fact I have heard that PFE has already begun making arrangements for THE BIG INTRODUCTION OF VIAGRA at next years AUA meeting in May (I believe it's May). This is great news! The sooner Viagra is out, the sooner VVUS can reap the benefits by removing this oral cloud that plagues the stock and by increasing the ED market awareness, not to mention the possibility of dual modality treament MUSE + VIAGRA! Anyway, it's nice to post again on SI although I doubt I will continue to do so? I hope all who were long on the way up either bailed out on the way down or had enough $$$$$$$$ to withstand the fall. As for me, ??????????<ggg> Good to see alot of new names on the board! Most new posters have the same passion for VVUS as us old timers! Just at a lower cost basis I hope.<ggg> Good Luck to ALL, Dr. "I never stopped reading the VVUS thread and still ALIVE" Bond

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3933)	12/20/1997 3:26:00 AM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

-- Great questions - I'll tackle the "cash" & tax piece; b/c this makes VVUS such an attractive takeover target (+ I'm a cpa) - here goes: 1. For 9 months ended 9/30/97: VVUS cut checks for $21.4 million - for "property purchases." Which means there is not a huge 4th 1/4 payment going to happen. 2. Normally, with all these purchases, and no borrowing or stock issuance, you'd think the cash balance would drop, right? 3. Well, just the opposite. On 1/1/97 - cash balance was $83 mill. Now, on 9/30/97, it's $97 million. 4. Oh yeah, did I say no stock issued? Well, they've spent $4 mill so far on buying stock back. My point: VVUS is flush with cash and it will continue to grow as far as the eye can see. 5. On the tax piece: GAAP requires that the tax liability be spread out over the year. So there will not be a sudden surge in tax expense in the 4th 1/4. So that's not even an issue. Out. You wrote: <<--- End of the year liabilities may reduce Vivus' cash hoard to about $70mm instead of the $100mm number being thrown around. Due to tax considerations, I also doubt that they'll be able to earn the $1.00+ now quoted by most analysts. >>

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3933)	12/20/1997 7:55:00 AM
From: James Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Bradpalm<<< --- FWIW, rumor has it that Viagra's NDA has bypassed the FDA Advisory Committee which would shorten its anticipated launch date by 30-45 days. This would push up the potential release of Viagra to late March or April of next year. Further, PFE reps will be sampling the product to doctor's offices.>>> Brad what is the source of this rumor?? It would appear foolish to give a new oral med for new indication less than normal expidited review. What is the viagra efficacy for producing erections for doctor's offices??? :-) Jim

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3933)	12/20/1997 8:24:00 AM
From: Linda Kaplan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Thanks for your post, Bradpalm. Which class action suit are you anticipating? If one were to be announced about the 25% production drop being withheld for so long, that it should be announced by now or very soon. Sounds good if Viagra will be out sooner. It's been killing VVUS on its anticipation, and it'll be better for VVUS to be facing that dragon sooner. Why would earl release of Viagra doom Zonagen's fast track consideration?: Are they supposed to be reaching so similar a population? (That's a moot point, not mute, by the way. Otherwise, mmmmmpph! You wouldn't have been able to say anything. hehe!) Bummer if you're right about the earnings. You usually are right, however. Linda