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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4006)	12/19/1997 4:39:00 PM
From: cfimx	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 10921

Here's a question to ponder: We are starting to hear some really bearish forecasts on this thread, and some others I monitor. The declines have given some of these voices the confidence to be bolder. That's fine. I have been bearish (on companies) too. But the argument says sell ALL now, buy at the bottom, and then ride the next cycle to riches and glory. But in practice, how easy will this be to do? In my book, it won't be at all. For one thing, you run the risk of this calamity not even happening. And then you will be reluctant to get back in again at ever higher prices. Number two, you will have to buy, and have money to buy, at the darkest hour. That's not easy to do either. In fact, it's the hardest thing in the world. So, while the bears may be dead on, won't an investor who simply rides this out be better off. He won't have the transaction costs. And he won't have to make a new buy decision. There is an old tale about the coffee can portfolio. That's the best way to invest. But it's not that easy either. Just wanted to inject a new view point.