Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cfimx who wrote (4007)	12/19/1997 4:57:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

twister, RE: "We are starting to hear some really bearish forecasts on this thread..." It is a little late to start being bearish, but it is appropriate to conjecture on how low the stocks can go. RE: "But the argument says sell ALL now, buy at the bottom, and then ride the next cycle to riches and glory." The theme of this thread is buying when things are looking dismal. I don't think anyone is saying "sell ALL now" or "buy at the bottom". (Days like today make us think that we have passed the bottom.) People have proposed valuation measures based on sales, book, and cash and have talked about averaging down. This thread was able to buy well last time and I suspect most will be able to repeat that success. Selling has been more of a problem for some of us. Cary

To: cfimx who wrote (4007)	12/19/1997 4:59:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 10921

RE: " But the argument says sell ALL now, buy at the bottom, and then ride the next cycle to riches and glory. But in practice, how easy will this be to do? ... In fact, it's the hardest thing in the world." I agree. It is difficult to pick the bottom and perhaps even harder to get out at the top. Best wishes, I2

To: cfimx who wrote (4007)	12/19/1997 5:35:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

There is an old tale about the coffee can portfolio. That's the best way to invest. But it's not that easy either. I don't think I've heard that one. Could you share it please? Thanks, Teri

To: cfimx who wrote (4007)	12/19/1997 10:05:00 PM
From: Thomas J Pittman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: question to ponder..... Here's another one What does this mean? I got it from MF today A potential beneficiary from all the Korean turmoil is chip maker Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN - news) , which gained $2 1/16 to $45 7/16 after investors assessed the possibility that Korean DRAM makers might plan to cut capital investments down the road... Lehman Brothers whipped out the upgrades on some semiconductor capital equipment companies, including Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT - news) , which gained $1 7/8 to $30 on a "buy" reiteration, and KLA-Tencor Corp. (Nasdaq:KLAC - news) , which rose $3 9/16 to $37 13/16 after it was raised to "buy" from "outperform" Were there upgrades today? Why? I dont see how txn figures in? Being stupid today i guess, but can anyone help? J

To: cfimx who wrote (4007)	12/20/1997 5:52:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Twister, buy equips after equipment spending as a percent of global semi revenue falls below 21% for a short period of time. This will cause an uptick in memory prices as supply and demand comes into better balance. The 50% semi annual uptick in memory prices will reassure chip OEMs that it is safe to begin to add profitable capacity because inventory excesses will have been cleared and old capacity brought off line. I saw the Goldman upgrade of Micron. This was the second analyst in two weeks to upgrade Micron. I wonder if Goldman is going to get some Micron underwriting business? They are esitmating $.10 for fiscal year 1998 (August) for MU and $1.50 for fiscal 1999. However, the Analyst is "not calling for an immediate end to pricing pressure as inventory still needs to be worked down". This was a value upgrade and in my opinion this analyst is early. However, I do admire his courage for making a tough call. I just think we shall see MU at $17 some day. His thesis is that the accelerated price declines in the memory market will lead to an accelerated cycle and eventual recovery. He feels a lot of 6" capacity is currently comming off line. Also, he is looking for DRAM per PC to increase in 1998. 32 meg of DRAM per PC (current config) costs roughly $45 per box. This is down from $370 for 16 meg of DRAM per PC in 1995. He sees sub $1,000 PCs moving from 16 meg to 32 meg and higher end machines moving from 32 meg to 64 meg. I agree with the analyst on the demand side and that bit growth may approach 100%. However, I respectfully disagree on the supply side. I see the over capacity running bit output much higher than 100% with prices declining to US $1.50 for 16 meg. I do expect a year end rally as the group is oversold technically with year end window dressing in large cap. However, I see another down leg in semi land in q1 1998 before it will be safe to buy. Again, 1X revenue for the entire group. I prefer to wait for the indicators I described above! They have served me well in the past and I will use them again. Jay