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To: Paul Engel who wrote (42907)	12/20/1997 7:58:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul Engel, re: "Compaq ships only 2 Mil units/qtr" Not according to IDC! (They get their data from the manufacturers). They show Compaq shipping 2.8 mil units in Q3'97, 14% share. Compaq's growth in Q3 was 53% W/W, 67% in the US, (Year/year). I suspect a lot of this phenomenal growth was due to sub-zeros, particularly in the US. Q4 shipments should exceed 3.0 Mil units. That's where I got my number of 6 Mil units in 2H. It makes sense. If Compaq only shipped 2 Mil units /qtr they would have less than 10% mkt share. W/W shipment in 2H will exceed 40 Mil units. A 15% Compaq share, (expected), gives them 6 Mil units. On the other hand, if we use your number of only 2 Mil units/qtr, Compaq would have to ship less than 200K units/qtr of sub-zeros if shipments are less than 10% of total ships. I think the Cyrix machines are more than that. I looked in a recent catalogue and counted nine different models of P54/55 166/200 Presario and Deskpro's that were sub-zeros. I also know that the $999 Presarios/Deskpros are hot sellers. (And not just from media reports. Three of my friends each bought one within three weeks of each other). I still agree with what Compaq IR told you, sub-zeros will be less than 10% of revenues. But I also believe they will be around 15% of units shipped. And I won't be surprised if sub-zeros acount for double digit percent of revenues in '98 and beyond, and will be the fastest growing segment for all manufacturers. If you have real data that refutes these arguments I'd love to see it. Regards, Gene