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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HammerHead who wrote (12598)	12/20/1997 5:11:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

<< It is risky to short COMS at this price. >> People said the same thing to me when COMS was at 34, 35, 36, 37, etc. << Investors will look forward with their rosy glasses >> True, but only until the next disappointment. << Even MU, the most Asia-related stock, up $3 today. >> It was? Yikes! You might be in luck. I might just have to switch my short over to that stock. If that's the case then why didn't COMS pull positive? You claim NKE and MU did. COMS was left out of the bargain hunting for good reason. << It really impressed me that the stock can jump $3 when the DRAM/SRAM price are deep sliding. >> There is a reason for that. People have the notion that the Korean and Japanese competitors who are slashing DRAM prices might not have the capital to produce as much. Therefore the over-supply of DRAM's might dissipate. We'll just have to see. I will be watching MU closely for an opportunity to short. << It tells me many bargain hunters will jump into COMS from now on, because most sellers already left this stock >> Couldn't that case be made for all techs? Why do they keep going down then if all the selling seems to be exhausted? That argument can be made all the way down to single digits. If enough problems exist sellers can re-appear and drive the stock all the way down to levels like SHVA or ASND or BAY. << I expect to see $35-$40 trading range before its next earnings release. >> That's ok, I can take 3 to 7 points of pain. (although I don't think this stock will see 40 before the next earnings release.) I don't expect more than 5 points of pain on the upside. A close above 38 appears to be very hard for this stock. A move down to 25 looks easy. << COMS was favored by many institutional investors with its big name tag. >> Was? Still is favored somewhat. That's a good thing. Plenty of institutions that will still want out in a hurry when things don't recover like people expect. I remember no less than 5 guests on CNBC recommending COMS as one of their favorites in the last month or so. I distinctly remember 2 on the day after the earnings warning. Heard a few more just the other day. Tells me that most of those guys have already bought if they are recommending on CNBC. I would be worried if nobody was recommending COMS. That would mean there were no believers with plenty of money on the sidelines ready to pour in. It looks like plenty of money has been pouring into COMS but it still can't support the price. What happens when the money runs out?