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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jeffbas who wrote (2826)12/20/1997 10:47:00 AM
From: Terrapin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78715
 
Sorry for contributing second-hand information but a similar discussion on interest rates for the coming year took place on Friday nights Cavuto's Business Hour (or whatever it is called). The conclusion was that real rates were high and would be coming down early next year. They used this to explain the flow of money into utilities and similar stocks.



To: jeffbas who wrote (2826)12/20/1997 11:39:00 AM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78715
 
Re: Barron's/interest rates/Nike

My Lord! Has everyone seen this am's Barron's? Nearly every article
says the sky is falling. I can't disagree with the logic, since
Jeffrey and I worked through most of the same stuff early this am. But
I must say that the volume of people in agreement is mildly
disconcerting for this bear.

Paul - I posted this on Nike the night of its earnings release
over on the Buffettology thread - relates to our previous discussion
of Nike on this thread:

Nike in many ways meets many of Buffett's criteria, but
is suffering currently. Looks like its hitting $40 after-hours.
One thing that strikes me is the ballooning AR and Inventory,
their stock buyback in the face of shriveling cash flow, and
their commitment to a $1 billion two-year capital investment
program, all while they tout their financial strength by
pointing to a current ratio of 2.5 that is based on poor quality
assets. I see charges in the future and a management that is
not willing to own up to everything just yet due to fear
of frightening Wall Street even more.

This stock might get really cheap. But Nike won't
stay down forever. Just an idea: file away Nike as a buy
in the $20's and buy in when it gets there. This year
should prove to be an aberration, and there will be less
shares out and improving cash flows/balance sheet once
it is all behind us. Here's hoping the market
gets really inefficient.


Good Investing,
Mike