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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/20/1997 9:27:00 AM
From: Mel Spivak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I have TC2000 and found the BOP not very reliable. For instance w UTI. After the 1st crash and rebound, UTI was almost 100% green. It seemed like heavy accum. UTI has tanked since. There are other examples too. On the contrary side, CXIPY has been relativley red and has held up better than any in Jeff's list.

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/20/1997 10:51:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Glenn- funny you mentioned shorting CSCO fri. It got my attention because my guy at Goldman was saying the same thing. He thinks their recent upgrade of CSCO this week was a sham to allow Goldman clients to bail. Anyway, we hit before the close at 53.75. Hope we see $20? Thread-- more good news from Pennzoil. You've got to hate it when the oil companies start cheerleading for the drillers w/ statements like "we plan on spending more in Exploration this yr." OSX looks to be rounding the bottom nicely, preparing for the beginning of a leg up. I'm looking for a nice Mon in the drillers! Good Luck! -NE fans-- this qtr is looking VERY good according to a few little driller elves I know! HOUSTON -(Dow Jones)- Pennzoil Co. after the stock market closed Friday said it set its 1998 capital spending budget at $555 million, down $54 million from anticipated 1997 spending of $609 million. The oil and lubricant maker said it plans to boost spending on oil and gas by 10% to $447 million. Spending on motor oil and refined products will be $61 million, down 65%, while spending on franchising and other projects will rise 77% to $47 million. The lower spending on motor oil and refined products results mainly from the completion of an upgrade to Pennzoil's Shreveport, La. refinery, as well as from the acquisition of the assets of two automotive aftermarket chemical companies. The overall capital spending budget is well within its cash flow, Pennzoil said. Pennzoil (PZL) said its domestic oil and gas budget of $366 million will emphasize exploitation and development drilling along with an increase in exploration activity. Spending on motor oil and refined products will go to expanding Pennzoil's marketing presence and boosting its motor oil market share in the U.S. Jiffy Lube, the company's quick oil-change chain, will spend about $34 million, principally on new-store development and refurbishment of existing locations. Copyright (c) 1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/20/1997 11:12:00 AM
From: Jeffrey Beckman	Respond to of 95453

Glen, The BOP charts change a bit from day to day, usually not that much although abrupt changes can be seen. Most charts had red bars from the last bottom all the way to the last peak. Things seem to have gradually cleared, first with the red bars getting smaller, turning yellow, and then many turning green. I suspect NE's red bar yesterday was an isolated reading, as the overall chart looks OK. I've been trying to get info. out of this indicator for individual driller stocks, which has had mixed benefits. It did show very strong green all summer for GW, KEG and SESI, but has misled at times. I'm hoping that the indicator may prove more useful as a general indicator of sector trends. I'll try to look at some of the past moves in detail and see how it fared. Later, Jeff

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/20/1997 4:03:00 PM
From: Jeffrey Beckman	Respond to of 95453

Glen, Looking over the BOP charts again, it's difficult to come to many generalizations. It did appear that the period from late November to early December had an unusually pervasive red BOP which extended even to many larger cap stocks that normally just show up as yellow. For instance, Tidewater had 7 red days in the last six months, five of which were in this late Nov./early Dec. period, almost every other day a small yellow bar. The readings now seem at least more normal. As Mel alluded, however, some readings can be misleading, particularly with small caps. Overall BOP seems to be improving, but time will tell. I'll report back from time to time. Jeff

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/21/1997 1:47:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

All; RE:" Study of the OSX.X 1 of 4 " Structure and Components of the OSX.X Index; Bellwether = SLB O I L S E R V I C E S E C T O R 1997 OSX.X LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN INDEX P/E * SLB 49 1.9x 94 -21% 74 +51% 11.39 33 M SII 38 2.3x 87 -33% 58 + 76% 9.84 26 M RON 30 2.7x 81 -31% 56 + 86% 9.26 27 D TDW 35 2.0x 70 -23% 54 + 54% 8.39 17 M VRC 10 3.3x 33 -42% 19 + 90% 8.04 34 S HAL 28 2.2x 63 -22% 49 + 75% 7.51 31 D RIG 26 2.3x 60 -28% 43 + 65% 7.04 43 M BHI 32 1.5x 49 -16% 41 + 28% 5.92 57 D RB 20 2.4x 49 -27% 36 + 80% 5.69 36 M DI 27 1.7x 46 -13% 40 + 48% 5.39 22 D RDC 16 2.7x 43 -33% 29 + 81% 5.24 22 D FLC 15 2.8x 42 -26% 31 +106% 4.90 30 D NE 15 2.5x 38 -29% 27 + 80% 4.59 15 D GLM 17 2.1x 36 -33% 24 + 41% 4.15 12 S GLBL 8 2.9x 23 -39% 14 + 75% 2.65 30 OSX.X 69 2.0x 141 -24% 107 + 55% INDEX 30 OTHERS : 1997 LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN MKTCAP P/E D DO 27 2.5x 67 -33% 45 + 66% .292 26 D SDC 30 1.9x 57 -35% 37 + 23% .197 26 D NBR 14 3.3x 46 -37% 29 +107% .134 27 M EVI 23 3.2x 73 -37% 46 +100% .103 15 M CAM 38 2.1x 82 -32% 56 + 47% .099 24 S IO 13 2.5x 33 -15% 28 +115% .057 44 D PKD 7 2.4x 17 -35% 11 + 57% .041 52 D CDG 20 4.1x 82 -40% 49 +145% .035 20 D PDS 15 2.5x 37 -40% 22 + 46% .033 16 M GIFI 7 4.5x 39 -49% 20 +185% .011 18 D = DRILLER M = MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT S = SERVICES -Steve

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/21/1997 1:50:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Respond to of 95453

All; RE:" Study of the OSX.X 2 of 4 " Sorted by Sub-Sector and Ranked by Index = MktCap Weight ... O I L S E R V I C E S E C T O R LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN MKTCAP P/E * SLB 49 1.9x 94 -21% 74 +51% 11.39 33 D TDW 35 2.0x 70 -23% 54 + 54% 8.39 17 D RIG 26 2.3x 60 -28% 43 + 65% 7.04 43 D RB 20 2.4x 49 -27% 36 + 80% 5.69 36 D RDC 16 2.7x 43 -33% 29 + 81% 5.24 22 D FLC 15 2.8x 42 -26% 31 +106% 4.90 30 D NE 15 2.5x 38 -29% 27 + 80% 4.59 15 D GLM 17 2.1x 36 -33% 24 + 41% 4.15 12 D DO 27 2.5x 67 -33% 45 + 66% .292 26 D SDC 30 1.9x 57 -35% 37 + 23% .197 26 D NBR 14 3.3x 46 -37% 29 +107% .134 27 D PKD 7 2.4x 17 -35% 11 + 57% .041 52 D CDG 20 4.1x 82 -40% 49 +145% .035 20 D PDS 15 2.5x 37 -40% 22 + 46% .033 16 OSX.X 69 2.0x 141 -24% 107 + 55% INDEX 26 LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN MKTCAP P/E M SII 38 2.3x 87 -33% 58 + 76% 9.84 26 M RON 30 2.7x 81 -31% 56 + 86% 9.26 27 M VRC 10 3.3x 33 -42% 19 + 90% 8.04 34 M BHI 32 1.5x 49 -16% 41 + 28% 5.92 57 M DI 27 1.7x 46 -13% 40 + 48% 5.39 22 M EVI 23 3.2x 73 -37% 46 +100% .103 15 M CAM 38 2.1x 82 -32% 56 + 47% .099 24 M GIFI 7 4.5x 39 -49% 20 +185% .011 18 OSX.X 69 2.0x 141 -24% 107 + 55% INDEX 30 LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN MKTCAP P/E S HAL 28 2.2x 63 -22% 49 + 75% 7.51 31 S GLBL 8 2.9x 23 -39% 14 + 75% 2.65 30 S IO 13 2.5x 33 -15% 28 +115% .057 44 OSX.X 69 2.0x 141 -24% 107 + 55% INDEX 35 D = DRILLER M = MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT S = SERVICES -Steve

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/21/1997 1:52:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Respond to of 95453

All; RE:" Study of the OSX.X 3 of 4 " Sorted by Sub-Sector and Ranked by 1997 Performance... O I L S E R V I C E S E C T O R LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN MKTCAP P/E * SLB 49 1.9x 94 -21% 74 +51% 11.39 33 D CDG 20 4.1x 82 -40% 49 +145% .035 20 D NBR 14 3.3x 46 -37% 29 +107% .134 27 D FLC 15 2.8x 42 -26% 31 +106% 4.90 30 D RDC 16 2.7x 43 -33% 29 + 81% 5.24 22 D NE 15 2.5x 38 -29% 27 + 80% 4.59 15 D RB 20 2.4x 49 -27% 36 + 80% 5.69 36 D DO 27 2.5x 67 -33% 45 + 66% .292 26 D RIG 26 2.3x 60 -28% 43 + 65% 7.04 43 D PKD 7 2.4x 17 -35% 11 + 57% .041 52 D TDW 35 2.0x 70 -23% 54 + 54% 8.39 17 D PDS 15 2.5x 37 -40% 22 + 46% .033 16 D GLM 17 2.1x 36 -33% 24 + 41% 4.15 12 D SDC 30 1.9x 57 -35% 37 + 23% .197 26 LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN MKTCAP P/E M GIFI 7 4.5x 39 -49% 20 +185% .011 18 M EVI 23 3.2x 73 -37% 46 +100% .103 15 M VRC 10 3.3x 33 -42% 19 + 90% 8.04 34 M RON 30 2.7x 81 -31% 56 + 86% 9.26 27 M SII 38 2.3x 87 -33% 58 + 76% 9.84 26 M DI 27 1.7x 46 -13% 40 + 48% 5.39 22 M CAM 38 2.1x 82 -32% 56 + 47% .099 24 M BHI 32 1.5x 49 -16% 41 + 28% 5.92 57 LO RISE HI FALL LAST GAIN MKTCAP P/E S IO 13 2.5x 33 -15% 28 +115% .057 44 S GLBL 8 2.9x 23 -39% 14 + 75% 2.65 30 S HAL 28 2.2x 63 -22% 49 + 75% 7.51 31 OSX.X 69 2.0x 141 -24% 107 + 55% INDEX 30 D = DRILLER M = MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT S = SERVICES -Steve

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (5783)	12/21/1997 1:55:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

All; RE:" Study of the OSX.X 4 of 4 " O I L S E R V I C E S E C T O R Clear and Present Trading Opportunities The OSX.X Oil Service Index consists of three Sub-Sectors: DRILLERS MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT SERVICES The Bellwether for this Sector is Schlumberger; all of the the OSX.X component companies are highly correlated to SLB. Schlumberger is reputed to be in the Soros Quantum Fund - shares of which cost $23,000. each, minimum 10, off-limits for residents of the USA to purchase. Quantum is a "Hedge" Fund; Soros makes money on price change, as well as growth. Were I an "investor" in this sector, I would buy/hold SLB. The OSX.X Sector is currently depressed - the intermediate trend is DOWN. However in the short-term, we belive it is over-sold. On Friday the OSX.X reached the bottom ( of its DownTrend Channel ) and there was climactic volume on most components- as well as other, oil services stocks that are not components of the OSX.X Index, but in this OSX sector. From this, we must be allowed to conclude that this volume was not the result of some index arbitrage programme - but a broader-based capital inflow to the sector itself. Sudden downdrafts like this that are met by investor-grade capital produce what are called "Hammer" or "Doji" symbols on Japanese Candlestick Charts, as in "hammering out a new trend". At present the OSX.X has formed a Hammer, as well as almost all other stocks in this sector. We do not know the "extent" of the reversal- we only know that "sentiment" has changed. We assume that the far target is near the top of the intermediate DownTrend Channel, and nothing more. I am listing my trading picks here, FWIW. (1) The OSX.X Index 106.56 -----> (a) fill gap @ ~109 (b) ~112 near target (c) 115 intermediate JAN 105 CALL OSXAA 7-1/4 JAN 105 PUT OSXMA 4-1/2 JAN 110 CALL OSXAB 5 JAN 110 PUT OSXMB 6-7/8 JAN 115 CALL OSXAC 3 JAN 115 PUT OSXMC 10-1/8 (2) The Driller Sub-Sector : * 33 target NBRAG JAN 35 CALL 3/4 -------------------30--- NBRAF JAN 30 CALL 1-7/8 NBR 29-1/8 ----> 32-1/2 = 10 % NBRMF JAN 30 PUT 2-1/2 (3) The Machinery & Equipment Sub-Sector : * 23 target VRCAX JAN 22-1/2 CALL 1 -------------------20--- VRCAD JAN 20 CALL 1-3/4 VRC 20 --------> 22-1/2 = 10 % VRCMD JAN 20 PUT 1-7/8 (4) The Machinery & Equipment Sub-Sector : * 22-1/2 target QIFAX JAN 22-1/2 CALL 1-1/4 GIFI 20-1/2 ----> 22-1/2 = 10 % -------------------20--- QIFMX JAN 22-1/2 PUT 3 (5) The Services Sub-Sector : IO 28-7/8 ----> ? Buy Cash and Hold. Average down to the gap @ 26 if IO fills the "window" there. LAST SUPPORT 24. ...this is an interesting stock - half OSX and half Tech; It is only partially correlated to the SLB Bellwether, but draws strength from being a TechStock within this niche. -Steve Joyeux Noel