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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (28453)	12/20/1997 12:31:00 PM
From: Lee Martin	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 61433

My take on ASND: Several months ago when ASND was in the 50's I remember reading some comments from management or analysts about a slowdown in Asia. I remember thinking "what's going with ASND in Asia ? Nobody else seems to be having any problems...." Now all I can say to all those broadly diversified investors that own all the "safe" S&P 500 and technology blue chips that have done so well for so long is "Welcome to my world !" I see ASND as the "spearhead" for the rest of the market. We know tech leads the market. ASND was and is one of the highest growth large cap. techs. and therefore will react to any slowdown in growth much faster than the average tech stock and the overall market. The slowdown in growth along with temporary problems with the k56flex rollout and perceived loss of market share to CSCO and COMS (COMS gain in share was a mirage that resulted from channel stuffing which has now vanished) have combined to take this stock down to multi year lows. The good news is that the k56flex problems are solved (nearly 2M ports shipped this Q) and management sees business and earnings visibility improving. ASND will meet earnings est. when they report in Jan. How many co's. can you say have been through the ringer and are now getting back on track ? Most are just now feeling the effects of slowing revenue growth and increased competition from Asia. ASND's FC consensus 3-5 yr growth rate of 35% is starting to look pretty good to all those potential suitors who are now having their own growth rates and earnings est. cut. I think ASND will eventually become part of a bigger co. but have no idea when. IMHO ASND will move higher because the price is cheap and it's fundamentals are improving, while most other stocks are expensive and their fundamentals are deteriorating. Near term ASND is like an oil well fire. The shorts have thrown tons of water on it (bad news, false reports etc.) to try and keep it going down, but the oil just keeps coming up (good news) and guess what, the shorts are running out of water. All it takes is some money manager to say on CNBC, " we think ASND is a good stock for bottom fishers" and throw a lighted match on all that oil....KA BOOM ! The stock blows up in the shorts faces and they go running for cover, throwing more oil on the fire as they close their short positions. Next they try to repair the damage by throwing more water on the fire by saying "stock jumped on takeover rumor... see no takeover.....time for stock to go back down now" But that oil just keeps coming up, sooner or later the fire is going to get out of control resulting in massive short covering. If a buyout doesn't do it before then, a good earning report in Jan will light the fire under this stock for a good run. Comments ? Regards, Lee