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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (11990)	12/20/1997 7:35:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

>> why don't these savvy money managers get more liquid? They are mostly kids with an average age of 28 - I wouldn't call them savvy. None of them have seen a real bear. The only thing that they have experienced was 87, which was a minor correction in one of the greatest bull markets in history. A period like 66 to 82 where the average investor lost 75% in constant dollar terms - now that's a real bear! >> Just in case something bad were to happen before Dec 31 I hope not - one last rally would be a wonderful opportunity to establish lots of short positions. Even if we don't rally I will start going short again in the new year. I may miss part of the ride, but I don't feel comfortable standing in front of the traditional rally. My main goal remains capital preservation.

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (11990)	12/20/1997 7:38:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Respond to of 18056

RE: My question, if so many people (us) know these dire things, and if the market predicts the future, why don't these savvy money managers get more liquid? Just in case something bad were to happen before Dec 31, they would want their numbers to look as good as possible for the year. That is exactly what has been happening...notice the selloff. I watched the techs tick by tick a few days ago and it was amazing how things went. You would get a trickle of action...a trade from time to time and then WHAM! a merciless amount of volume on the sell side. No individuals could have done that. The question is if this will continue next year or not. B.

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (11990)	12/21/1997 1:14:00 AM
From: John Ritter	Respond to of 18056

Jack, Don't get me wrong, but I think some people think something bad has already happened and that the money managers have had a real sell-off. Now those who might have this view do so from the bottom side of a particular stock, usually one whoes volume has had spikes suggesting that a significant portion of the shares have traded over in a few days. I suppose you are speaking of the DOW, which actually is doing reasonably well, as are a significant number of DOW stocks. What you may be noting is that funds, while they are good investment vehicles don't do much better than the market (as a whole), and they have to balance their positions to maximize their numbers, just like the companies. I would rather buy a downed stock than a downed fund, most expecially if the funds knocked it down running for the door. Peanuts to them and your money, but yummy tablescraps for the little guy watching the carniage. John