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To: Gary K. Best who wrote (5783)12/21/1997 9:59:00 AM
From: T.K. Allen  Respond to of 10368
 
I thought I would periodically update my "BNGO Recovery Scenario" (first posted 12/15/97) as news comes in. Here it is:

- Darlington acquisition completed. Completed 12/18/97 but not publicly announced yet.
- Warrant call achieves 90+% conversion.
- Acquisitions (in states other than South Carolina) announced.
- Federal judge throws SC "illegal lottery" claim out of court.
- BNGO achieves NASDAQ NMS rating and marginability.
- Additional analysts begin coverage.
- Institutions, looking for somewhere to invest their money now that tech stocks are getting beat up, begin buying BNGO.
- 4th Quarter EPS continues current growth rate.

Of course, the only thing that really matters is how the market treats BNGO, whether or not the items in my scenario come true. Time will tell.

TKA



To: Gary K. Best who wrote (5783)12/21/1997 10:12:00 AM
From: SE  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10368
 
I think there is a lot of wisdom in your post. I have converted my warrants and a drop to $3 or $4 would not be a kind thing to do after wiping out my warrant equity in total.

However, once the call is over the arbs and shorters have no advantage to gain by continuing to short the stock. Once the relentless selling pressure is gone, I don't think we will be in as bad of shape as you suggest we might be. I also agree that we will need buying pressure to propel the stock upward, however, I think that after the call we will find for the most part the stock is held by a whole new group of investors with a longer term time horizon and strong hands in general. There will be some short term players, but there will also be some short term buying support offered by those who have waited till after the call to buy and will do so if the stock rebounds in fear of it getting away from them.

Gary, you may be correct. I may be correct. I am not saying you are wrong. In fact your post is prudent and everyone should read it to understand that we may be at $3 or $4. I have spent the last two to three weeks studying the company, making lots of phone calls and thinking about the mentality of the new stockholders and trying to determine under what scenario we would go below $5. The only one I see is a panic push below $5 on high volume to shake loose those that will not hold below $5 and a quick reversal. This will be scary if it happens, but this company is not destined to stay below $5 for long, if it happens.

GO PACK GO!

-Scott

PS - I hope you are not buying any of my shares!!!!! :)



To: Gary K. Best who wrote (5783)12/21/1997 10:25:00 AM
From: T.K. Allen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10368
 
Gary: I am curious about your statement, "I also think there has been some artificial support to keep the stock above $5." Who, in your opinion, has been providing this support and how do they stand to profit from it? BNGO management? MMs? Arbs? Somebody else?

I can see how BNGO management would benefit from supporting the stock price during the warrant call. There have been several individuals asking the company to do just that. However, if memory serves, BNGO has stated they will not intervene in the market.

I have to disagree with your statement, "The fact of the matter is, most of the people who are convinced of the long term prospects for BNGO have already bought and have bought a lot in many cases." Although I agree there are many who have already bought (I am one), I suspect there are a number of individuals who decided to wait until after the warrant call to decide whether or not to buy. In addition, there are always people out there looking for good stocks to buy and the right time to buy them. I see nothing but positive developments for BNGO over the next few months. South Carolina's decision on how big a tax bite they're going to take is the only negative I see.

TKA



To: Gary K. Best who wrote (5783)12/22/1997 1:42:00 PM
From: Pat Doucette  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 10368
 
Gary, I respectfully disagree with you about the short term
prospects of BNGO. The price had good support at the $8.00
level before the warrant call, so why would the price be
artificially supported at the $5.00 level? I believe the
price will rise after the call to at least the $8.00 level
short term, probably higher. I don't believe it will go
anywhere near the IPO price because this is not the same
company it was at its IPO. Since that time the company
has had:

*acquisitions and openings of several more centers, including
Gold Strike and Darlington.

*increase in EPS

*good support at levels much higher than today

*Also, there is the common knowledge that a warrant call
puts downward pressure on a stock

I am not a number cruncher but I am sure there are more than
a few readers on this thread who could add numbers to the
above. Good luck to all.

Patti