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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (12034)	12/21/1997 10:21:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Tommaso: If I was persuaded that the secular bull market is over, I would agree with you, but at this point in time, I still see the coming six month of weakness as a deep retrenchment in a long secular bull move that will not end until the Dow has breached 10,000 and possibly exceeded it. I think this is where we differ fundamentally. My reasons for believing in a major secular bull market is based on my believe that the world is on the treshold of welcoming into the consumer society over the next 10 15 years a big chunk of new "consumers" from the developing countries, including the former soviet block China and India. As these consumers come to the fold and adopt the gargantuan styles of the west, demand and thus growth "world" production will increase. I expect to see more cyclical adjustments (as the one we are facing right now, which in my opinion is a typical cyclical excess capacity downturn, unlike many earlier cyclical peaks which were due to excess inventories buildup). The ratcheting down of PE expectation to the levels of 3 occur only at the bottom of major cycles, probably the third or fourth final down turn in a secular bear market. I just do not see what will cause a secular bear market in the near future. Zeev