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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3281)	8/6/2015 12:05:43 AM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Respond to of 26680

Thanks. I agree with your comment on the graph about market tops are hard to call. I actually think that they are pretty much impossible to call and those who do are mostly lucky as they seldom get the next one, at least with any significant switch in assets. I came REALLY close to selling ALL my AMAT at $25 at the start of the year as I felt it fully valued what could happen with the merger and I had a huge gain on shares recently purchased in the low teens. I have a good friend who WORKED there but quit not long ago to move back to Taiwan to take care of his parents and work for one of their customers... I took profits at $22.69 and haven't bought back yet... but at least I considered selling more. -grin- I would have looked and felt brilliant as I even wrote about selling it for many months in my newsletter. One reason I didn't sell is it pays a good dividend and what would I buy with the cash? Age old issue.... you have to make two good decisions to beat buy and hold. Now I'd consider buying back SOME with that cash.... duh... and it is getting to where I'm interested again, for large cap Semi stocks... the smaller ones have a ton more value. Thanks again for the chart and good to have you posting here. -Kirk out

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3281)	8/6/2015 12:07:21 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26680

BTW, I think your chart confirms my belief that the bottom was ALREADY called last year. I believe my favorite trader, FNSR, bottomed about the time the spike went below your buy line. I think what we are seeing now, that has Cramer so discombobulated, is they are taking out the generals (Disney and Apple recently) and shooting them. That usually marks the time for the next big run higher to start. Try plotting this vs your bp chart...

To: Return to Sender who wrote (3281)	8/24/2015 1:30:02 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26680

Thanks. You were sure right about a pullback... over 12% so far. The trouble with massive market timing where you go all in and out... is you have to be right twice. I prefer to trade around core long holdings and incrementally add and subtract. I always get to look stupid multiple times every cycle from selling to early on the way up and buying too soon on the way down, but I limp to the bank with a smile. The question now is was this about it or is it the start of a major bear? My guess is we probably made a tradable bottom and could go lower into October but maybe not... I had shares of Intel flop into my IRA at $25.00 this AM and I wonder if that could get cancelled as it is already back to $27.31, up 2.8%. I'd be tempted to sell and make a nice "salary" for the day... but I sure like the dividend at that price... .96/25x100= 3.8% That other stock I was looking to get flopped into the boat this AM also and now it is green.