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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (3352)	8/31/2015 11:56:38 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26636

HI Kirk, China has misallocated a lot of money. They also have huge reserves to cover their mistakes. I remember back in 1998 with the asian contagion a lot of people said China was the next shoe to fall. The difference between South Korea, Thailand, Viet Nam and China is the first three have debt while China has the reserves to spend.

To: Sam who wrote (3352)	8/31/2015 12:55:08 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26636

Yeah Robert.. No one can say for 100% certain.. I'm just looking at that chart and it's screaming bear market.. And those two black (brown) candles on that quarterly chart seem to a pretty good indicator that it's time for a correction.. The question is whether it will hit that lower Bollinger Band, as it has in the past two iterations.. And we all know we've gone a long time without a major correction, which means the pendulum could swing even harder in response.. Hawk

To: Sam who wrote (3352)	8/31/2015 12:58:20 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 26636

Good question! The question that must be asked is, is this another bubble that must be popped, as in 2000-01 and in 2008? I don't think it is, but it is a tricky question because it is possible that China, Inc is in a bubble that will be popped. If yes, To what extent will that affect the US market? Not clear to me. A China bubble popping could be similar to what happened in the US after the Nasdaq bubble popped. Some random thoughts. GGLR, my natural gas play, helped pay many/most of my bills along with newsletter cash flow in 2001 Aug 31 GeoGlobal News - GGLR is up 180% YTD Value stocks did VERY well in 2001 and 2002.... I also benefited greatly from taking profits in my tech stocks in 1999 and 2000 and buying a fund that benefited from falling interest rates. This time, I think we want things that benefit from slowing rising rates. Things like housing didn't do nearly as poorly in the Silicon Valley as tech stocks as insiders dumped shares and bought things that paid dividends or saved on mortgage expense. I was actually hired in 2000 and 2001 as a consultant to help make that case at an investment firm with some big tech stock insider clients. In 2008/2009 crash, EVERYTHING fell but for safe US Treasuries... MANY people with CDs lost money as they didn't want their funds tied up for years to get them back from FDIC so they pulled them from troubled banks and paid the early withdrawal penalties I think China implosion plus Greece, etc.... is at the worst similar the the Nasdaq bubble collapse so companies with solid earnings could do very well. Also, lower prices from China and commodities WILL HELP the US economy eventually...