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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3403)	9/7/2015 1:19:49 PM
From: Kirk ©	2 Recommendations Recommended By George Statham Gottfried Respond to of 26648

We are in one but when will it burst? This says it well "All across the Valley, the majority of big start-ups are actually glorified distribution companies that are trying, in some sense, to copy what Domino’s Pizza mastered in the 1980s when it delivered a hot pie to your door in 30 minutes or less. Uber, Lyft, Sidecar, Luxe, Amazon Fresh, Google Express, TaskRabbit, Postmates, Instacart, SpoonRocket, Caviar, DoorDash, Munchery, Sprig, Washio, and Shyp, among others, are really just using algorithms to deliver things, or services, to places as quickly as possible. Or maybe it’s simpler than that. As one technologist overheard and posted on Twitter, “SF tech culture is focused on solving one problem: What is my mother no longer doing for me?”" Miserable traffic make it feel like March 2000 but my gut tells me we are seeing the equivalent of the Asian Contagion decline of 1997.

To: Gottfried who wrote (3403)	9/12/2015 4:06:38 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26648

I posted this reply in a forum where most don't know me. I'd be interested in what my long-time friends and readers here think of the ideas. Kirk: I'm not sure I agree. "I confess no easy answer but all this does lead to more obesity, less sense of community. less vibrant eclectic town center type corridors and far fewer local small business owners not good things." I do far less shopping in stores now, even the big boxes as why drive in gridlocked traffic to get some regular item on sale at Walmart, Macy's or wherever when half the time they run out and you wasted a trip? Just this last week I did several orders from Amazon and Walmart (for the first time) of stuff I had on lists to replace but couldn't seem to find here locally at the grocery and hardware stores. I got free shipping from both by adding some regular items that cost the same or less online. Had USPS deliver one box on a Sunday and the other a couple of days later and had three boxes delivered by FedEx on two different days. Four deliveries for maybe $80 worth of goods. My thought was how do they make money when it could cost me $80 just for the Fed Ex deliveries of those packages with dirt in the past? Anyway, I see most buying stuff online eventually and the big stores are for when you want to get out of the house or buy fresh goods. (or get human advice and help such as OSH vs Home Depot) In SF, this seems to have freed up a lot of time for people to get into cooking so the restaurants are booked selling $40 breakfasts and $50 lunches (for two) where people seem to not mind overpaying for the "experience" of eating over priced food. I've read the young and many of us older folks pay for "experiences" rather than things hence the high prices for sporting event tickets, concerts, restaurants, shows, etc.... as the price rises to what the traffic will bear. Anyway, back to the comment.... I think the vibrancy is in boutique shops and eateries. I spent a TON of money on windsurfing gear the past two years and went through a shop rather than online to help the shop AND in exchange for the volume, I got discounts. The boards, sails, masts and booms I ordered were not from inventory in the shop as they order from the manufacture then pay the shipping. FedEx is much lower than the cost to service a loan for inventory when you include the risk of not selling the item by year's end and having to offer it at cost or below. Using an "inventory light" model, the shop can spend more time expanding into new areas like SUP tours and kite surfing and even group vacations on a boat. . Small companies that figure out how to use the "new way" to better "delight their customers" will do well. The others.... will stock shelves at Home Depot.