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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (3419)	9/14/2015 2:59:44 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26622

I agree. My HO insurance bill was down significantly from a year ago. My guess is it reflects low losses in CA (CSAA or Triple A Insurance) last year plus lower prices for wood. My guess is with California burning down.... sad to see so many on TV without homes now.... they will go up again next year. Lumber could be a buy now... if the recent surge isn't already reflecting the CA fires.

To: The Ox who wrote (3419)	9/14/2015 3:49:35 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 26622

Commodity prices did not begin to rise until the stock market bottomed in 2009. They rose until 2011 which incidentally is about the time where ECRI was forecasting a return to recession. Please refer to page 4 figure 3: yardeni.com Since that time commodity prices have been falling even though the our stock market here in the United States has continued to rise. This is a disconnect. Historically commodity prices and the stock market rise together as worldwide economic expansion causes rising prices for both. What the Fed has done by buying assets with our tax dollars is to create a stock market bubble that will only be fully appreciated in the rear view mirror. Ox and Kirk, you guys are exactly the same age as I am but when you look at the history of the stock market you seem to believe that there was no history prior to the 1990's. That's just wrong. Eventually all things revert to historical norms which in the case of the stock market includes at least 150 years of historical data. I am not saying we won't soon get a great buying opportunity in the stock market. I am saying there will be even a better one in the future. RtS