To: John Mansfield who wrote (7743 ) 12/22/1997 8:01:00 PM From: JF Quinnelly Respond to of 31646
Here's some of what Yardeni has to say that is pertinent to Topro:yardeni.com I. Embedded Chips: Invasion Of The Body Snatchers Stress Test? Contents Most news stories about Y2K focus on "legacy" mainframe computer systems. With a great deal of effort and expense, these can be repaired or replaced. However, the biggest and most widespread disruptions might be caused by a far tougher Y2K problem to fix, namely, embedded systems that are not Y2K compliant. There are billions of embedded systems all over the planet. First the good news: Most are not date sensitive. But, some are, and no one can tell where they all are and how many of them might fail. All I know for sure is that they will be stress tested on January 1, 2000. This is one reason why I am certain that there will be Y2K disruptions, but uncertain about the magnitude of the trouble ahead. What Are They? According to the Institution of Electrical Engineers (IEE), embedded systems are devices used to control, monitor or assist the operation of equipment, machinery or plant ["The Millennium Problem In Embedded Chips"]. "Embedded" means they are an integral part of the system. Consequently, a casual observer won't see them and even a skilled technician might need to examine the operation of a piece of equipment for some time before concluding that an embedded control device is in there. All embedded systems are computers. Some of them are very simple devices compared to a PC. The simplest devices consist of a single microprocessor chip which may itself be packaged with other chips in a hybrid or Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC). Its input comes from a detector or sensor and its output goes to a switch or activator, which, for example, may start or stop the operation of a machine or may control the flow of fuel to an engine by operating a valve. Where Are They? They are everywhere. The linked table is a long, but not an exhaustive list prepared by the IEE of all the places these little gizmos reside. They are in elevators, traffic lights, and cars. The ones that are really worrisome are embedded in industrial, utility, telecommunication, medical, navigation, and military systems. Can They Be Fixed? The thought of fixing/repairing/replacing embedded systems can make your head spin. First, you have to find them and determine if they have a Y2K problem. Engineers have reported finding chips performing the same function in identical equipment, yet some are Y2K compliant and others are not. Replacing embedded chips isn't easy. Some are customized and hard to duplicate. The manufacturers of some are out of business or have been acquired by other companies that do not intend to upgrade an "out-of-print" chip. Replacing chips older than three years is almost impossible because they have a short technical life span. When Might They Fail? In embedded systems, the concern is often with intervals rather than with specific dates. An event might need to occur at 100-day intervals rather than on the 5th day of each month. This implies that Y2K problems may occur both before and for some time after January 1, 2000 and not at all on the date itself. On the other hand, there is a possibility that devices with cycles that are measured in hours, and minutes (or even seconds) may be affected by the problem because year numbers are the basis of time calculations. In such systems, the failure may not occur on the stroke of midnight but during the following 24 hours.