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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (3432)	9/21/2015 2:22:54 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26631

In the past few weeks, almost all the commentary from oversea analysts are saying short US equities and go long Europe and Japan. We'll see soon enough whether or not that is the right approach for the next quarter or 2....... I think many of us knew a correction was likely (and possibly flat out needed) in US equities. The great bear market that many are predicting seems far fetched to this observer, not that it can't happen but I don't think we are seeing anything more than nervous investor reactions after nearly a year of sideways movement in US major stock market indexes..... China being the "big bogey" on the horizon that will suck the world down the drain is NOT a given to this observer! Having said all this, respect the trends. If all hell starts breaking loose and we get a sustained period of down hard, then we must acknowledge that more is going on behind the scenes than is visible to the press/public.

To: Kirk © who wrote (3432)	9/21/2015 2:36:24 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Recommended By Kirk © The Ox Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26631

Not a lot of history with that poll. Fortunately we have a lot of other meaningful data that says a good bottom should be forming in the not too distant future. I think we will get at least a retest of the lows last month. Sentiment is overly bearish. The put to call ratio has been showing the same. What we need to see is a retest followed by a 9 to 1 upside day or a couple of 80% upside days. First the market is going to retest in my opinion because we have not yet seen such a day since the August bottom. I want to see 8 to 1 twice in close succession on up volume and issues. One 9 to 1 day would do it. finance.yahoo.com markets.wsj.com This should also show up in a higher volume up day than the previous last down day. Then as things improve more a higher volume up week followed by a higher volume up month. Are we there yet? No, but there are a lot of constructive things happening. Keep an eye on all the major market charts because for now there might just be more downside ahead. Volume and market breadth will tell the story: The August bottom was almost good enough but not quite in my humble opinion. But then I am wrong a lot. Then again sometimes I get it right too. RtS