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To: Q. who wrote (4089)	12/23/1997 2:21:00 AM
From: GuinnessGuy	Respond to of 10921

John, Re:"FWIW, in the most recent SFAM conf call, they anticipated that about 11% of their 1998 sales would go to Korea (assuming nothing is cancelled), so SFAM has about average exposure to Korea." One point John: SFAM's sales aren't 100% to semiconductor manufacturing companies. I believe that the figure is more like 60%. Thus Korean sales are expected to be more like 18% of their semiconductor sales which is far closer to the 20% figure that you were contesting in your post. See link below for partial confirmation of SFAM's sales breakdown: sec.yahoo.com Craig

To: Q. who wrote (4089)	12/23/1997 6:45:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

John, You may be correct that Korea only represents 11% of global equipment purchases. The cycle is over irrespective of the Korean exposure. The fact of the matter is that commodity semi components represent 50% of the global target market for equipment. Also, that all commodity producers around the globe are losing money currently! I can tell you that the great Wall Street analysts in most houses are currently modeling flat to up 10% global semi cap ex in cal 1998. I will also tell you that there is still significant risk to equipment company valuations including SFAM. A good question for SFAM management is what % of targeted equipment sales in 98 are going to the disk drive and commodity based chip clients? I'll bet that percentage is much higher than 11%. Remember, that all of those clients with the exception of IBM are currently losing money on operations. I will finish by telling you not to value Equips on P/Es . The earnings estimates out there are artificially propped up until the major houses have had the chance to get the last of their respective clients money out. You will experience more dreaded analysts downgrades. Good luck to you, AMAT and SFAM are great long term companies, Jay

To: Q. who wrote (4089)	12/26/1997 9:27:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

John: Does Korea account for 11% of global semiconductor equipment consumption? Unfortunately, we do not know this as fact. Merrill Lynch in a recent report on the industry put Korean semiconductor equipment purchases at 22% of world wide equipment spending. In a recent interview with Briefing, Jerry Fleming of Sutro put Korea's spending at 15% of global consumption. In a recent interview with Barrons, Moshe Handelsman of Advanced Forecasting noted that Korea accounted for 9% of semiconductor equipment sales in 1997 thus far as of December. Dan Hutchenson of VLSI estimates that Koreas big three IC makers will account for only 7% of global equipment purchases this year. Pick your number and you will have found a foundation on which to build a conclusion. Such is the folly in attempting to quantify the effects of Korea's problems on global semiconductor equipment consumption in the immediate future.