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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4164)	12/26/1997 10:53:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Justa, I think you are picking up the trend, 225, 15%, 11%, 9% and now the expectations are for 7%, and some think even that might be high. I think the most striking fact is that last month shipments from the semi equip people reached a top of slightly above $3 Billion which annualized will come to $36 Billion, this, for the time being is as best as can be, thus from here we have a period of month to month comparision which are going to be reinforcing the malaise, not relieving it. Zeev

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4164)	12/28/1997 11:05:00 AM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Justa; forget the Folly of forcasting Korea! Spend your time at the front of the semi food chain. For the 3rd time; Korea is NOT the problem. Global Supply/Demand for semi's and semi equilibrium prices are the Grinch that took semi stock margins to Whoville! Subsequently, semi margins are taking equipment spending , margins and shareholder returns to Whoville. This process takes 12 months; minimum! However, DRAM prices lead the fundamentals of equips out of Whoville. Semi stocks and equips correlate nicely with DRAM prices. This is because 50% of global equipment spending is targeted at commodity chips. As prices rise, margins rise and Whoville regains the spoils of Christmas (Christmas 98). Remember, this is a global semi economy with global supply and demand. This is not a Korean semi economy. While Korea is important at 35% of Global DRAM capacity; global capacity rules and DRAM prices perfectly reflect the global supply/demand relationship. The Grinch will return with presents aplenty! However, Greed (capacity) and Speed (Moores Law) influence capital spending! :) Jay