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Biotech / Medical : 2015 Biotech Charity Contest -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BulbaMan who wrote (346)	10/2/2015 11:07:44 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 407

I was running some numbers in my head on the carnage. And the numbers just kept not making sense. Finally, I pulled some charts and prices from back in June/July and this week. A couple of observations: 1. Many stocks moved up 20-35%+ from lows this week to close. Before making a judgement on that, note most of those stocks were slightly down week on week. 2. IBB rallied on week after briefly going very red on year and week. 3. It looked like panic selling beget panic buying. 4. As bad as things look, many stocks are only modestly down from late June. There are a few antiobiotic/Martin S exceptions. Overall, I am seeing only 5-10% from then - of course it was much worse midweek. And there are RARE exceptions up from July 1 (I like that one lol) even if those are still down a lot from 2 weeks later. 5. Peak panic buying occurred in mid July. Prices remain quite a bit below that, call it 1/5 for our universe. 6. Much technical damage done. Much. Almost all stocks are below 50 day. Most below 200. On EMA basis, that will look better though with this week's low given more weight. Crazy. DO NOT look at Sept 30 statements. It seems selling was concentrated into not showing bio bios on Sept 30 holdings assuming T+1. Lows were Sept 29 mid to late afternoon. Someone shot a zinger earlier in week or last week noting the lows weren't in as I thought in August. Well, for bios, we just had an undercut low in XBI and a re-test save for IBB. Individual bios mainly did go to new undercut lows. Mkt as a whole though had an undercut Russell low with a re-test save in S&P. Most technicians prefer undercut lows in indices with fewer issues hitting new lows. Check for Russell. Note the 2008/2009 low was undercut variety. Explosive upside followed. 2011 was the save variety. It was also explosive and did not look back. There was panic bio and FANG buying today. Not sure what to think. Jon

To: BulbaMan who wrote (346)	10/9/2015 7:11:21 PM
From: BulbaMan	1 Recommendation Recommended By rkrw Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 407

10/9/15 Contest update The “drug prices are out-of-control” news cycle began to run out of steam by the end of the week, possibly to be replaced by Newt Gingrich’s comeback. thehill.com However, despite the reduced pressure on biotechs, they still lost some ground for the week. At Friday’s close the Contest median was up 5.84% YTD (vs. up 8.26% YTD a week ago), the Nasdaq Biotech Index was up 1.64% YTD (vs. up 3.95% YTD a week ago), while the smaller-cap S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index was up 4.23% YTD (vs. up 5.62% YTD a week ago). The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 1.99% YTD (vs. down -.60% YTD a week ago). MOPGCW’s portfolio, up 67.67% YTD, kept the Contest lead, with DANIEL’S portfolio, up 57.02% YTD, and DONS’ portfolio, up 43.40% YTD, holding on to second and third place. At the week’s close, 37 of the 51 Contest portfolios were in the green with 35 beating the NBI and 29 beating the SPSIBI. The 206 Contest stock picks now have an average YTD gain of 2.04% and a median YTD loss of -7.41%. Below is the Top Ten list. Also below are the week’s Top 5 & Bottom 5 Stocks. (I’ll resist punning to dump on EXAS. Oh, guess I did.) (Foreign stock prices are not converted to US$ in these Tables.) Portfolio adjustments: None (All corrections, especially adjustments for buyouts & splits, greatly appreciated.) Have a relaxing Indigenous Peoples' Day weekend biotechies! Peace & good health, Bulba 10/9/15 Rank Name Profit/Loss 1 MOPGCW 67,668 2 DANIEL 57,020 3 DONS 49,397 4 DEWDIL 35,953 5 GUERL 35,186 6 GHMM 35,164 7 JACKH 30,407 8 MCBIO 29,967 9 OLIVIER 28,057 10 BAGEL 27,029 Week's Top 5 Gainers Symbol 10/2/15 10/9/15 Wk.%chg. SKBI 0.920 1.660 80.43% PACB 6.130 8.070 31.65% EVOK 3.340 4.350 30.24% GTXI 0.750 0.961 28.07% IMMU 1.730 2.170 25.43% Week's Worst 5 Losers Symbol 10/2/15 10/9/15 Wk.%chg. EXAS 18.120 8.510 -53.04% RDUS 75.890 57.800 -23.84% INCY 126.460 105.000 -16.97% SCMP 21.480 18.190 -15.32% GNCA 6.930 5.990 -13.56%