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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Chalker who wrote (11844)	12/23/1997 7:45:00 AM
From: chaz	Respond to of 25960

John, thank you for commenting. I'll not profess to being a wizard re this market. There's no crystal ball here, and I agree with you that someone will profit handsomely. It may be the Indians as far as I know but it sure looks like it won't be the Koreans. I just have a very unsettled feeling here...a sense that there's a massive sea change coming that I can't see through just yet. Wish I could. Look at a company like MicroTouch. Absolutely solid fundys, half the price of just months ago. How can anybody call a whiplash like that? I should tell you that I'm retired, but that I'm also a risk taker big time. So how do those two reconcile? Most would say they don't. I feel it's time to sit out the dance, but in a few months, I'll be back, and I do think my positions in the same issues I like will be larger, and I'll once again feel comfortable about them. Events might prove me wrong. That's ok. CYMI long term is probably going to be great, so will you, so will I. This market (stocks in general) has always been somewhat unpredictable, but I've always found individual issues that seem to perform in a mostly rational fashion...earnings, cash flow, market share, etc. Just now, I see more irrationality than usual, especially in stocks I feel basically good about, thus my decision. Might add, my kids think I've lost it. Chaz.

To: John Chalker who wrote (11844)	12/23/1997 8:21:00 AM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

John and All: Forbes, 23 December. Cover story on semiconductors. It may put an economic face on my feelings recently expressed. Chaz.

To: John Chalker who wrote (11844)	12/24/1997 3:41:00 PM
From: Scott Violette	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

John, There is time factor that you should consider around the Korean situation. The current DRAM factories are not going to shut down right now because of the Korean currency problem. So the excessive situation for the current generation of DRAM and other related products will not be relieved. The Koreans will move as many products as they can NOW to fix their currency problem. Good NEWS for anyone wanting to upgrade their computer. Bads News for anyone competing against them (MU). The reduction in capacity will not come until DRAM graduate to the next generation and Korean current equipment becomes obsolete. What is the time factor for the reduction in capacity and resulting increase in margins for the Semi-makers? 6 months or 2 years? Depends on now much equipment for the next generation that they have already bought and paid for.