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To: Sam who wrote (8311)	12/23/1997 12:20:00 PM
From: John Wang	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11057

Sam: Which of the three top HDD makers will appreciate more from here is anybody's call. QNTM certainly looked very appealing before Brown pre-announced earning shortfall. Not counting DLT, QNTM would have been in the same shape as the other two even though QNTM is supposed to participate in the mid and high end desktop and SCSI. But, even DLT had transition issue and slow down. In my opinion, the HDD maker that is the most efficient, highest yield, lowest cost will accelerate up in share price. If DLT market is as good as everyone believes, I agree that QNTM will be the top one. But, you should never be so sure about it. Competition may spring up suddenly and change DLT's outlook. I admire QNTM's business. But, I don't think that it is invincible. Korean and Fujitsu have been gaining market share. The Korean turmoil and IMF mandate may put a damper on Korean expansion. At, least, OEM's in US may be weary about them being a long term player. The current pervasive thinking is that the price war will last at least six months or longer. What if the price war suddenly abates? Remember no analyst came out and predict this sudden price war and severe earning erosion? Who can guarantee that they will not be wrong again? John

To: Sam who wrote (8311)	12/24/1997 10:15:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11057

Re: Pierre's Theory of Cycles To: ALL Hello to all, I wish everyone the absolute best for the holidays. I've just finished the first draft of a fairly large piece about cyclical technology industries in general and DRAM and HDDs in particular. users.deltanet.com In this article I discuss: * Why these companies boom and bust * The pitfalls of industry forecasts * Elasticities of supply and demand * How you too can ride cycles for fun and profit * Formal Theory of Cycles * Examples from history * Dangers posed by competing technologies * Perpetual advance of technology * and much more! Would love to get your feedback. PX