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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4096)	12/23/1997 6:21:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, Go back and graph the SOX with memory prices. You will find a significant R2. Why don't you wait for memory prices to reverse before theorizing a rally in the SOX. Are there short term technical reasons for your thinking? I must tell you that I'm not a T/A! On the next breath I will tell you that the fundamentals for the Semi's are getting worse with every passing day! The won is down to 1,950 for every greenback, allowing SEA to export chips to the US at unbelievable prices. Micron is losing money! Major US and European push outs are just around the corner! Intel already pushed out the Texas Fab. If Andy Grove can't make a buck on commodity chips, whats next? Respectfully, Jay

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4096)	12/23/1997 6:26:00 PM
From: Robert Schling	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Given the dark cloud hanging over SEA, I believe that most of the SOX's fate will be decided during the January earnings reporting period. People have become so focused on inflation lately that they have forgotten the other driver for stock prices: earnings. Most "experts" are forecasting S&P earnings growth of less than 10%. If tech companies come out with cautious or negative forward looking statements during January (I remember Oracle and KLIC), the plug may be taken out of the earnings side of the equation, with a downward P/E adjustment. It will take time, and some "sucker" rallies... A bottoming in 6 months seems reasonable to me. Some good long-term stocks like AMAT and PRIA still have plenty of downside left IMHO, because they went totally off the radar screen this summer and still trade above (!!!) their average price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios. Of cource, AMAT always deserves a premium because of its industry "gorilla" status. P/E's are meaningless for these cyclical stocks. Just my .02 worth. Robert