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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (11191)	12/23/1997 4:37:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Here's my take, first of all I won't be short till Feb, too long a time frame. .05 surprise is already priced in. If they don't BEAT numbers signif., the stock tanks. No news to drive it here in the mid-term. I just see a slow grind to 46 or lower based on the chart. 46 is your 200-day moving ave and the Oct low. It is a natural place for the stock to make a stand, but I don't think it will hold. It could go lower. Current estimates have not been cut since Asian debacle. So you've got a stock trading at 30 times earnings which in the BEST case scenario will only grow at 24% for '98 to '99. I don't think it will even come close to those estimates. Sure, CSCO only has 7% direct Asian exposure, but the people who buy from CSCO have much, much more. If their business slows, their rate of capital expenditures will slow thus causing CSCO's business to slow. Even if this proves to be totally inaccurate. The mkt suspects this and the stock will be driven lower becasue of fear. Trust me I know, I've been long in the oil drillers for the past year. They haven't been affected by the asian crisis AT ALL and won't be, but mkt has pounded them. Don't make the same mistake I did. Get out while you still have nice fat profits. Mine are dwindling. Good Luck! -Lucretius

To: The Phoenix who wrote (11191)	12/23/1997 4:52:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

>>>However one thing that the shorts haven't considered is what if Cisco beats their number when they report in early Feb. rather than miss or meet it? What if they beat it by 5 cents or more? Does the stock value reflect this positive news and push past 60? <<< I believe that that's something that every short should surely consider and weigh heavily. Personally, I would never, ever, hold through earnings. You never know what can happen, and the great risk is just not worth it, in my opinion. I don't even like holding a trade past the closing bell because of the risk of news appearing overnight when you cannot maneuver. I was shaken out of CSCO yesterday just from an intraday mini-rally. Style Pts.