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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (3643)	12/3/2015 3:59:02 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By 3bar Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26763

Hi Kirk, Some big numbers (positive dropping of the 10 day clx). With yesterday and today - there will be some big negatives. So with a santa claus rally yet to happen before the 25th - I'd expect a reset to negative clix and up into Christmas Rally. Buy them on sale with fear in the news and run them up into a happy time to make the monthly pay check. Then the January effect and Q4 actual with guidance that I expect to be weak - could be dicey by January. Brooks guided weak hoping to break even. Cohu's guidance was weak also and both were saying they were doing better as they were experiencing market share gains. It does not sound good out there in a global view. The one ace that could change all that is the Saudi's saying we have collective agreement to curb oil production and the energy sector could well have a turn up as demand for oil has been growing - always does when it gets cheap. China and India both only growing 6-7 percent is still a lot of demand for oil. CRB hit a 40 YEAR LOW TODAY. That is saying something. Excess capacity everywhere so marginal mines / plants have to shut down. Still a growing world almost every where (just slowly) growing and consuming higher than ever before. Seems the ZIRP is good for asset inflation and bubbles of some kind every 4-5 years. One thing for sure rates will be low for long and quality stocks yielding a nice dividend will be the sought after game in town. When they get so sought after that the dividend yield is being approached by bond yields, the result of faster rising rates - it will be euphoric and time to sell stocks. Until then,commodities seem to be the pain dejour. Bob