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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6054)	12/23/1997 8:49:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

TDW'ers:From the Boring Portfolio at Motley Fool: The demise of Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) stock has been less dramatic -- more a steady ebbing away as opposed to a crescendo of selling... until today. TDW slumped $3 1/8 in active trading. Continuing worries about the degree to which the slowdown of Asian economies will reduce the demand for oil in 1998 combined today with rumors about softening in dayrates for oil drillers, and that sent stocks of exploration and production companies sharply lower. Among the worst hit was Tidewater, as an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney trimmed his earnings projections for the remainder of Tidewater's 1998 fiscal year (ending in March) and FY 1999. The analyst reportedly cited "slower than expected acceleration in day rates." The analyst revised his fiscal '98 EPS estimate to $4.13 from $4.30 and dropped his FY '99 forecast all the way to $4.95 to $5.60. Pretty impressive, huh? Perhaps so. One might want to consider that, according to First Call, the analysts' old estimates were at the top end of the range. Even with the revision, the analysts' FY98 forecast is above the consensus of $4.09. As for the FY99 estimate, it's now below the consensus of $5.17, but it still represents a projection that Tidewater will grow EPS by 20% over the coming year. For that kind of growth, investors can now pay less than 12-times projected earnings for the fiscal year ending in March, or less than 9-times projected profits for next fiscal year. Perhaps the best source of information and insight anywhere -- and from both bears and bulls -- is right here in The Motley Fool, in the Oil and Gas folder inside the section for Industry & Market Analysis analysis. You might also wish to review a summary of Tidewater's recent conference call. I also spoke briefly with the company today and received no information that would justify this sell-off. When I learn anything more, I'll pass it along.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6054)	12/24/1997 12:11:00 AM
From: chuck weir	Respond to of 95453

Baird, I listened and agree; buy with both fists!

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6054)	12/24/1997 12:33:00 AM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Top Stories: Oil Service Sector Continues to Slide By Mavis Scanlon Staff Reporter 12/23/97 7:41 PM ET .....taken from street.com--now that you have to read this bearish news--realize that a columnist in the same issue said he was selling most of his tech (he is a big fund manager--where is he putting his tech money--in oil services!) The market's major indices were sleepy for most of Tuesday. But it was another rough day in the oil service and drilling sectors. The main indicator showing the group's health from a trading standpoint, the Oil Services Index (OSX), fell steadily all afternoon and closed down 4.2, to 99.2. That's a level not seen since mid-summer, before rosy earnings outlooks became marred by OPEC, Asia, and world supply-and-demand questions. The overall group continued its slide Tuesday with few exceptions. After falling Monday on market speculation that contracts for two new-build semisubmersible rigs fetched lower-than-expected dayrates, bellwether Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) perked up in the morning, gaining 7/16. But it fell through the afternoon, closing down 13/16 to 72 15/16. Schlumberger's earning estimates are up 51% for year-end 1997 and are expected to increase 29% for 1998, and other oil service companies are similarly situated. Therein lies part of the reasoning behind investors' persistent negativity: Earnings are not growing as fast as they have for two years running. Complicating the psychological factors is a wild card -- Asia. "The primary difference between now and earlier this year is the Asian situation," says Kurt Hallead, an analyst at Cambridge Investments, a San Francisco-based hedge fund concentrating on oil service stocks. Even sector bull John Lovoi of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter concedes that, given what is going on in the overall economy, if the crude market breaks 16 -- and stays there for a period of time -- it could drag down earnings in the sector. In Tuesday's oil futures trading, January light sweet crude stayed safely above 18, the point at which investors and the market have gotten nervous lately. "There is a tremendous amount of negative speculation," Lovoi says. Global Marine (GLM:NYSE), which has now extended until Jan. 16 its negotiation period with Harland & Wolff for the construction of a new drill ship, closed down 1 9/16, to 22 1/16. Other deepwater drillers, such as Diamond Offshore (DO:NYSE) and Transocean Offshore (RIG:NYSE), have also suffered. DO closed down 2 3/8 to 42 5/8, while RIG closed down 2 1/4, to 39 5/8. What's also striking about this sector's downturn is that there has been virtually no differentiation among the various niches, says Hallead at Cambridge. They went up as a group all year, and they are falling -- many now down more than 20% in the past six weeks -- as a group. "At some point there's got to be a differentiation," Hallead says. He suggests the winners will be the ones supplying the most necessary components and construction. If new wells and rigs have to be built -- and new rig construction has started -- then Freide Goldman (FGII:Nasdaq) and Varco (VRC:NYSE) will do well. Today, however, FGII fell 1 13/16 to 26 5/16 and Varco fell 1 3/16 to 17 1/4. Another "must have," Tuboscope (TBI:NYSE), was up 3/16, to 19, Tuesday, after it announced after the close Monday its acquisition of Tulsa Equipment Manufacturing. The purchase will enhance TBI's manufacturing capacity. Tuboscope is a manufacturer and supplier of tubular material and pressure-control equipment to the oil and gas industries. * * * * * A new alliance shows that oil companies are far from relaxed about the prospects of future services and supplies. Chevron (CHV:NYSE) on Monday night announced an alliance with four service and equipment firms. Chevron wants to ensure it will have the resources it needs for its Gulf of Mexico Deep Water business unit to increase Chevron's reserves by 2 billion barrels during the next 10 years of so, says company spokesman Tom Garcia. The companies are Aker Maritime, Brown & Root Energy Services, Han-Padron Associates and Saipem.