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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chirodoc who wrote (6072)	12/24/1997 1:05:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

MERRY CHRISTMAS strictly drilling thread--- Remember, it really is a wonderful life. You could own Bre-X! Still on sabattical for a while but wanted to drop a note. First, thanks to all those who sent E-mail. As I said, just taking a little break from the thread. The atmosphere is not as condusive to posting w/ jerks hanging about. It has gotten rather hostile lately as stocks continue to plummet. 2nd, TDW earnings lowering fundimentally a non-event, however emotion might play on it in the s-t. TDW derives increased earnings from boat shortages and the number of rigs at work offshore to service. Not so for the drilling dayrates. In fact, as the number of drilling rigs in service increases, TDW's business gets better, but dayrates peak among drillers. 3rd, see no rebound until Jan on the charts even though I know fundimentally these stocks are a screaming buy at these levels. Haven't bought any more NE since 27. Bottom maybe at 24? Thean what's your take here?? 4th, I would not be buying any calls or going on margin, YET. When these stocks make the turn. You'll know it. You'll miss several points of upside, but you won't go bankrupt waiting as many fear who bought farther up the disaster trail. I've quit trying to find the bottom as my puts on my position expired last week, and now I am incurring losses daily. No need to compound the disaster. Maybe this is capitualtion, I don't know, but these stocks have been to hell and as of yet have not come back. It's the most bizarre action I've ever seen in a stock w/ no fundimental bad news other than pure speculation on world economics and where P/E's are dramatically lower than growth rates AND not even close to the mkt multiple (some trading at 8 to 10x '98 earnings!) I see as the only MEANINGFUL (in excess of 10% from present levels) rebounding factors as being, (1. a stabilization in oil above $19. (2. Tremendous earnings plus VERY good forward statements by co.'s. Earnings surprises for 4th qtr are already priced in IMHO. We know about them, so does everyone else. (3. 6 months of these stocks doing nothing w/ oil at 17 to 18 and they still beat numbers every qtr. (4. Some wild freakish event I can't fathom. In any case, I'm sure most of this was common knowledge, but I just thought I'd pass it on my thoughts to some the older soldiers on the thread. I haven't left you guys. Still hangin tough and holding strong w/ my original position in NE. Still see NE doubling (or tripling from current levels) by this time next year, but that as they say "is just my humble opinion." I shall return to the thread when the drillers resume their uptrend! Good Luck! -Lucretius