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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (8816)	12/23/1997 11:13:00 PM
From: Eric Klein	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9285

I subscribe (although I'm not sure why) to the Calif Tech Stock Newsletter put out by Michael Murphy. He's been waffling about the market, saying it's overvalued, then saying it's going to go up, then buying protective Spider puts, etc. A few months ago he was big on IFMX, around the same time he came out with a big headline "Buy BioTech Now", unfortunately at a very inopportune time considering where biotech has headed since. He has now abandoned the Spider puts and says to go long, on margin! He feels that the PC market is going gangbusters (I guess he's never heard of Korea or Japan). My feeling is that he's gotten hammered over the last couple months, and is desperately trying to play catch up. Anyway, from my recent experience with Murphy, I would equate this buy signal from him as a good signal that we're in for a big decline.

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (8816)	12/24/1997 12:45:00 AM
From: Dan Ross	Respond to of 9285

Interesting info about ENCD..... From recent 10-K <<<<<<< DEPENDENCE ON EXPORT SALES - For the quarters ended September 30, 1997 and 1996, sales outside the United States represented approximately 57% and 58% of the Company's product sales, respectively. The Company expects export sales to continue to represent a significant portion of its sales. All of the Company's products sold in the international markets are denominated in U.S. dollars. An increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies could make the Company's products less competitive in foreign markets. International 11 sales and operations may also be subject to risks such as the imposition of governmental controls, export license requirements, restrictions on the export of critical technology, currency exchange fluctuations, political instability, trade restrictions, changes in tariffs, difficulties in staffing and managing international operations and collecting accounts receivable >>> From a different 10-K (ENCD March '97) << Demand for the Company's products could be adversely affected by a slowdown in the overall demand for computer systems or printer products>> Wouldn't everyone agree that we are seeing this?? Two year chart of ENCD......TA WIZZES OUT THEIR...Isn't this a breakout to the downside ?? I'm not one but this chart sure doesn't look good...... quote.yahoo.com Anyone have access to Bloomberg?? How about insider buying/selling?? I am in N.C. right now til the 31st...Ie. no bloomberg access at school.... Take care Dan Ross