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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Hunt who wrote (12304)	12/24/1997 9:20:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Several "talking heads" remarked that yesterday's selling was due to illiquid markets (when the day's volume hit 514 mm shrs!) Rabid Bulls are going to have a rude awakening! Bear markets are characterized by illiquidity. Try to hit a bid when the market is falling and the pit is backing away from every offer. Try to sell stock in So.Korea, for instance, when you need liquidity. Yesterday's market was not illiquid based on volume, rather it was illustrative of what may come to pass day, after day, after day of selling if the worsening case continues to evolve.

To: John Hunt who wrote (12304)	12/24/1997 3:16:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Hi John, >>19 of the 30 Dow Industrial stocks are now below their 150 day exponential moving average. And 5 out of the last 9 weeks the DJ has traded through the 30 week exponential moving average line and this line is fairly flat. I was talking with one of my brokers yesterday discussing January and what I should do since I have a fair number of short positions. He is a real smart fellow, Warton type. Interesting thoughts on this market in that he does not believe institutions will buy stocks with Asia or SA exposure. Recommended I sit on my shorts and keep moving my stops down as the the 30 week moving averages decline and just let them stop out. BTW I am shorting these DJ suckers as they drop through the 30 week MA and putting stops on their last push for glory. As they try and recover and can not I am moving my stops to the 30 week MA after the fall. HWP is the only one that has stopped out. The rest are behaving nicely.<ggg> The NAZ 100 has broken below the 30 week exp MA and cleanly trading below it for the last two weeks. Also the curve has turned south. Joan

To: John Hunt who wrote (12304)	12/24/1997 3:30:00 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

John: No doubt you know this, but others may find interesting. An old broker' adage says stocks (DJIA) are overvalued when the yield drops below 3%...but that's an old adage. Currently only three Dow stocks yield over 3%; MO, GM and JPM!!!!! ALSO the Dow divisor is now at a historic low of 0.251......so, if 29 of 30 are unchanged at a given moment and IBM drops 5 points - the DJIA will be down 20 points. A one point move in any of the thirty translates to four points in the index. Happy, Healthy and Prosperous times to all. Don