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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (12059)	12/24/1997 11:43:00 AM
From: Yaacov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

TO ALL: 1.5 million PCs expected to be sold during this holiday season!"""" It really doesn't matter how many PC's US households buy this holiday season, how hungry European buyers will be for PC's this, or how great the 4th quarter results will be! The CPQ share will not began to make a real move upward unless the institutional investors santiments have not changed. Yesterday Moody and S&P 500 down graded 275 bilion dollars the soverign debts of Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia from AAA or Aaa1 to bb1, that is from Investment grade to junk! For those of the SI subsciber who know about the bond market, this is a clear signal. The Korean governement was supposed to float 10 billion dollars in bonds and they couldn't find buyers not even for 1 billion! Korea desperately needs to pay back 10 billion dollar debits by the end of Dec. and they don't know where to find the money. IMF is not going to let go with more money until they see the country shows signs of recovery. All facts indicate that Korea will have to decalre bankrupcy and start all-over again;unless. Indonesia is to follow-up with 200 billion dollars in natonal debit. Suharto is on the way out and the new adminstration will be doing what the Korean incoming president did, decalre insovency, unless! Unless the G7 during their meeting in Feb. 97 will allocate a specail fund to assist the three hardest hit Asian Countries, Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. IMF alone can not face the task. Now, given such bleak out-look, I doubt it if we see our CPQ shares will shoot-up after Jan. 4th. They will do what CSCO has done after the recent split, languish! Swiss Bank Corp analysts beleive we should wait for May 1998, where we can indeed see how Asian crisis has damaged the CPQ earnings. Once that we have adjusted our earning expectations, bringing into account the loss of ravenue in Asia, maybe we began to see some upward movement int he second half of 1998, (to be on the optimistic side!) There, however, remains one hope, that CPQ continues to post good earnings despite the Asian crisis, by cutting costs and reducing the inventory, etc. That is something to hope for!