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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56537)	1/3/2016 6:46:30 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78767

I had a view (based on non-marginal production cost) that 45 was a floor "over the 1-3 year" time frame. Not only do I no longer believe that is true (the marginal costs are much lower) but I realized in the Great Death Slide #2 this year that I wasn't willing to sit there and keep buying as my stocks (TGA and BNKJF) eroded support. I reversed course/ put my faith in technicals/ sold everything at 8-10% loss and bought back lower with a plan to repeat as needed. I have searched in the meantime for a new and more actionable fundamental view Graham, As I think back through the "Great Death Slide" (I love that name for it) I recall the point where it seemed like there was a rally that was getting ahead of itself, too much confidence that oil had bottomed, and I sortof kick myself for not better understanding it at the time. I look back through my trades, and see a sell I made in HP on 4-30-2015 that I made based on these feelings of too much optimism, but instead of taking advantage and liquidating more, I remember telling myself to just stick to the course on most of the positions, and I kept adding on the way down after that. In hindsight, I should've been more open to selling into rallies on the way down with the mindset to sell and then reload at lower prices when sentiment turned the other way again. I'm going to to try to incorporate that into my plans going forward during market collapses. I think another thing I've learned from reading many of the energy boards, is how "emotional" oil and energy is to so many of the investors there. There's almost a religious fervor about the topic. That informs to a degree my focus on sentiment to a large degree. The swings can be so strong because of the strong mental worldviews the investors have.