To: Daniel Schuh who wrote (15577 ) 12/25/1997 1:21:00 PM From: 16yearcycle Respond to of 24154
Dan, How is it in God's country?I traveled all over the country trying to find out if any place was more beautiful than Wi, I went to Marquette, but only Wa. was better in my estimation. I miss driving up to Hurley this time of year, to find some great cross country skiing, and I would head up to Door county to stay in a resort on the water. I hope you are at peace with what a beautiful area you are in! The rhetoric on this thread is severe and emotional enough as to PROBABLY blind the anti-msft crowd from the powerful economics of msft as a business and investment. Your own comments have never seemed to be motivated by hatred, but others have got to be a few cards short. Keep in mind that I have my own prejudice, having a minimum of 100 folks that I know well who work at msft, and having been a stockholder since 1988, and having bet the farm on it in 1992 when it fell to 20x earnings. If you can believe me, this is the reason for their stance: if msft is prevented from steadily adding to the os, as they have done up to now without much trouble,it potentially affects their future dramatically, by changing the way they will need to leverage existing market strength. Why anyone thinks it is more complicated than that is beyond me; Gates has always been clear about what he wants to do.They want to add everything to the os, and they don't see why the gov should be allowed to stop it. If they back down now, it changes the entire strategy.The stock price will be much better off in the short run, 1-3 years, if they put this behind them, but over time they would have to change strategy for maintaining the current dominance. The crowd is just making this way too complicated. They dominate the os . Hold the position, roll everything possible into it. Competition dwindles away. Impossible to back down from the most important tactic to accomplish this long term vision. Duh. As far as the stock price, I think you will find that 108 is the potential bottom. Buy at that point, and in 5% increments and 3 positions below it.Or a tactic of purhasing now and slightly larger amounts at 113 and 108. 108 is 28% below 150, and that is the maximum correction msft has suffered since 1990. 108 is a pe of 33x this years e, and 25x next years, truly bargain levels.For Reg's sake, I am talking about reported earnings. I'm as aware as anyone that their actual earnings are MUCH higher, and that is why it is a buy at around 45x trailing e. This is the first time since 1995 that I have bought more, but not much yet. Merry Christmas, Dan. And have a good blowout for me on New Years. Happy Holidays. Gene