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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (4136)	12/25/1997 9:41:00 AM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

THC, I have not read your prior postings, but I seem to remember you being as bullish as I was on the Moores Law stocks only several months ago. It is very good IMO for you to be able to detect when things have changed in the investment business. Too often when people commiit their heart and soul (hard earned capital) to excellent companys (Cymer) they lose their objectivity and allow emotions to trickle into the investment discipline. THC, remaining objective is the most difficult thing to do! I've noticed in a very short career that few can maintain an open mind when so much is riding on their "initial" asessment of the investment process. I continue to be amazed at the bullish sentiment currently on the web and in the semi industry at large when only 18 months ago similar macro conditions existed that took this group to 1X revenue. IMO the conditions that existed in 95/96 if anything are worse this time around. Yet everyone is attempting to reassure themselves that the market is wrong and they are correct. If in fact you were bullish several months ago, I'm patting you on the back for having an open mind. This aspect of your personality will ensure your success in a very challenging business (capital allocation) in the years ahead! Merry Christmas, Jay

To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (4136)	12/25/1997 12:50:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

THC: Well, the scenario is evolving as I have been descibing it on CYMI, VECO and AFR thread since late September. I think that the collapse of demand for semi equipment from Kporea will be followed by retrenchment in Taiwan wher about 16 big Mega fab are on the planning board or atvarious construction stages. The way I see it, the folding of some of the current participants (and I fully expect some participants to fold and tale capacity of the table), will reduce the "urgent" need to move to .25 micron as well as to 300 mm wafers. A lot of the impetus for continuation of the furious investment rates of the last few years in semi was to increase efficiency to saty competitive, but if capacity is taken off line by the weakling, this impetus will be reduced, and we might even have some stability on pricing for six months or so. Even if that unlikely event were to happen, we would still be very much under the normal decline for the Moore curve. Zeev